The ACT will receive an extra $20 million in GST revenue in the next financial year, a meeting of the states and territories has confirmed.
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But ACT Treasurer Andrew Barr says the territory could be $200 million poorer each year under a Coalition government led by Tony Abbott.
A meeting of state and territory treasurers on Wednesday agreed to adopt the Commonwealth Grants Commission's recommendations for the annual distribution of GST.
Mr Barr said the ACT would receive an extra $19.7 million in GST funding in 2013-14 and an additional $63 million in the period from 2013-14 to 2015-16.
But he warned that any changes to the GST distribution model, from the present horizontal fiscal equalisation system to a per capita basis, would hurt the territory's share of revenue.
"I think this is an important issue that states and territories will confront should there be a change of government," he said.
"[Tony Abbott] is certainly on the public record, on the front page of The Australian, I believe, indicating a preference for per capita distribution."
Mr Barr said shifting to a per capita distribution of GST would cost the ACT $836 million over four years. "The underlying principles of horizontal fiscal equalisation are that no matter where you are in Australia, whether you live in a state or a territory, you can expect that your government can provide you with the same level of services," he said.
"This is important to recognise in smaller jurisdictions and remote jurisdictions.
"The difference between what we get under HFE and what we would get under a per capita allocation over the next four years is more than $800 million.
"So the impact that would have on service provision in the territory, if that money were taken from us, is significant."
Mr Barr said the $20 million increase to the territory's share of GST revenue was the result of population growth that was occurring faster than the national average and the need to fund essential services for that larger population.