The ACT Greens have spent tens of thousands of dollars on a major poll to assess their chances in October's territory election, but the research has brought mixed news for the crossbench party.
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Party sources say the polling shows the Greens' primary vote hovering in the mid-teens, not enough to maintain their current crop of four MLAs.
There was more bad news from the quantitative side of the poll, with voters failing to rate the Greens' traditional strengths - public transport and the environment - as hot issues in the October's contest.
If an election were held this weekend, according to the research, each of the Greens' lead candidates in the electorates of Molonglo, Ginninderra and Brindabella would be elected.
The most likely outcome, subject to the results of the party's preselection ballot that is currently underway, is the return of MLAs Shane Rattenbury, Meredith Hunter and Amanda Bresnan and the probable defeat of Caroline Le Couteur. But despite the possible loss of one of their MLAs, the polling points to the Greens comfortably retaining their balance-of-power status in the eighth assembly.
But the research, the most comprehensive ever undertaken by the ACT branch of the party, also points to work to be done engaging the electorate on issues traditionally seen as Greens' strengths.
Voters told researchers health, education and economic management, the traditional strengths of the two major parties, rated ahead of the environment and public transport areas where the Greens believe they have performed well during their time in the assembly.
Greens convener Simon Copland failed to respond to questions from The Canberra Times this week.
The work also marks a watershed for the ACT Greens in their journey from the fringe party to mainstream political players. The party has never polled on this scale before and spent less than $9000, from a total declared spend of $63,000, in research for their 2008 campaign.
But the Greens have more to spend on their 2012 effort than before after a windfall gain of $225,000 from the Australian Electoral Commission, in recognition of their capturing more than 20 per cent of the vote in the 2010 Senate race. The payment boosted the party's receipts in 2010-2011 to more than $500,000.
The party is currently in the midst of choosing its ''lead'' and ''support'' candidates for the territory's three electorates from a field of 10 hopefuls, ruling out any possibility that the Greens will contest all 17 seats in October.
But the process has already descended into internal acrimony before the party has managed to select a single candidate for October's territory election.
The Canberra Times reported last week that a series of leaked emails revealed an internal row that broke out after a would-be candidate was advised to step aside by the party's powerful preselection interview committee amid allegations of recriminations and settling of old scores.
The party hopes to have its team for the election selected by the end of the month.
