Proposed changes to the territory's electoral boundaries could deliver a majority government and more Greens members after the 2016 poll, according to respected analyst Antony Green.
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The ABC election commentator and psephologist used voting data from the 2012 election to make a rough re-calculation of results based on five proposed new five-member electorates.
Transferring all polling places to match the proposed boundaries released this month by the ACT Electoral Commission, Mr Green found on 2012 results Labor would win 10 seats, two in each electorate, at the required 16.7 per cent quota.
The Canberra Liberals would win 11 seats, two in each of four electorates and three in Brindabella. The Greens would win one seat in Kurrajong and have the largest partial quota results for the fifth seats in both Ginninderra and Murrumbidgee.
If either of the two major parties increased its vote at the expense of the other, both Labor and Liberal would have the chance to win three seats in three electorates – which could see the first majority government since Jon Stanhope's historic 2004 election win.
Mr Green's analysis did not account for external voting booths or postal votes from the 2012 poll.
He said the final seat in the new seat of Yerrabi was difficult to allocate to any party.
"A caveat on assessing whether the Greens would win two of their three possible seats is what happened in Ginninderra at the 2012 election," Mr Green wrote on his ABC election blog.
"Labor won 2.39 quotas to 0.61 for the Greens, but Labor won three seats and the Greens none because three Labor candidates recorded a larger individual vote than the lead Green candidate."
"If the Green vote were to increase from its 2012 level, the party would have a strong chance of winning three seats and ensuring it won the balance of power," Mr Green said.
People have until April 28 to comment on the proposed boundaries. The October 2016 poll will see 25 members elected, up from the current 17.
Greens balance of power member and government minister Shane Rattenbury welcomed the analysis and said it matched internal Greens' thinking after successful New South Wales and Victorian election results.
"We see ourselves as a good chance in three or even four seats but we've got a lot of campaigning to do between now and then," he said.
"You need a little bit of luck as well. If you contrast our 2008 results where we got a good and lucky flow of preferences and we ended up winning the second seat in Molonglo against all expectations, versus 2012 where Meredith Hunter lost, against all expectations, because of a quirky preference flow."
Mr Rattenbury said he stood by earlier criticism of the move to five five-member electorates in the ACT. He said if the Greens held the balance of power after next year, the party would decide who to back in government based on policy.
"I don't resile from my position that five by fives make it harder for smaller parties and independents. That will be the case and I think it will be extremely hard for anyone else to break into the Assembly."
"We will get to the end of 2016 and have delivered four years of stable government with the Labor Party and there is obviously some commonalities there of agenda and opinion ... it's never been our case that it is purely about the numbers, it's about the policies."
Mr Rattenbury said the progress of construction of the light rail line from the city to Gungahlin would put pressure on the opposition's position in the lead-up to the election.