Francis Markham, of the Australian National University, and Martin Young, of Southern Cross University at Coffs Harbour, have studied the history of casino openings around the country, and say the story is the same – a claim of attracting international tourists and the reality that local residents end up losing by far the most on poker machines.

"The idea that you'd have international VIPs coming to Canberra to gamble on poker machines is ludicrous really, so if that's what's underwriting the viability of the venue it would be fair to say that it's going to be local Canberrans that are going to be paying for the refurbishments of Binara Street," Mr Markham, a PhD student researching the geography of poker machine use, said.

Hong Hong-based Aquis Entertainment bought the Canberra casino last year and plans a $330 million development, which it says will bring almost 750,000 new visitors to Canberra, including high-end Chinese gamblers.

The proposal depends on allowing poker machines into the casino, according to Aquis, which has asked the ACT government to approve 500 pokies on site. Chief Minister Andrew Barr is considering the request, sparking a fightback from Canberra clubs, which have exclusive rights to run poker machines at the moment.

Aquis also proposes a casino near Cairns, for which it wants 1500 poker machines. It says the casino would be based on others in Macau, where the bulk of revenue comes from international visitors. But in a submission to the Queensland government, Mr Markham and Dr Young said there were "good reasons to doubt the claim that most gamblers at the proposed resort casinos will be international tourists".

Australia's first casino was in Hobart in 1973, approved on condition of no pokies. By 1986, pokies were allowed and by 2009, 89 per cent of gambling revenue came from losses on poker machines.

"The vision of Asian high-rollers are flying to Launceston to gamble may seem absurd with the benefit of hindsight, but was very much part of the marketing of the casino development to the Australian public," the researchers said. "Similar promises of [electronic-gaming machine] free, tourist oriented casinos were made for most Australian casinos. Yet with exception of Casino Canberra, all now serve a predominantly local market, focused on EGM gambling."

They pointed to five other casinos which were opened as poker machine-free venues. All except Canberra now had them and all relied on them. Productivity Commission figures showed 40 per cent of gambling losses came from problem gamblers and another 20 per cent from people with trouble controlling their spending.

Even if the casinos attracted Chinese gamblers, they were unlikely to play poker machines, preferring table games, they said.

In Macau, the number of poker machines accounted for just 4 per cent of gambling spending, despite "extensive efforts of casino operators and machine manufacturers" to make them more popular.

Deputy Chief Minister Simon Corbell has said that if the casino gets poker machines it would be within the existing cap, of about 5000 pokies across the city. Mr Markham said while taking the machines from the existing pool would mitigate some of the damage, more harm was done by poker machines in big venues than in smaller venues.

The larger the venue used by gamblers, the more likely they were to have a gambling problem. And the more machines in a venue, the greater the loss from each machine – a result likely due to the ability of bigger venues to market more effectively, manage machines more efficiently to make more money from them, and to offer courtesy buses, loyalty cards and other incentives.

The club industry has also hit back at Aquis' claim of 750,000 visitors attracted by the new casino, saying the total international visitors in the past year to Canberra only numbered 179,000.

Clubs ACT chief executive Jeff House said even allowing for the 2.04 million domestic visitors, the Aquis numbers didn't stack up.

"It is very unlikely that people will fly thousands of kilometres to play gaming machines at the Canberra casino. The proposition is even more unlikely when considered in the context of numerous casinos already operating in Australia and Asia and Canberra having no international flights.

"This is not the only casino project Aquis is pursuing in Australia. Where will Aquis prefer to fly their high value customers, Canberra or the $8 billion casino and resort they're planning to build in Cairns?"

If the casino was serious about the plan, it should agree to restrict access to poker machines to international visitors only, he said.