In the United States midterm elections rarely deliver good news for the incumbent President and his party, and so it has proved in 2014. The Republicans have gained a majority in the Senate of at least seven seats and increased their majority in the House of Representatives to levels not seen since President Truman's time in what they and many pundits are describing as a public rejection of President Obama's policies.
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As voiced by the new Leader of the Senate, Mitch McConnell, this means the Senate, which has been gridlocked for most of Obama's tenure, will "go back to work and actually pass legislation". The onus for the Democrats' cooperation and compliance with the GOP agenda has been placed squarely on the president, whom McConnell has described as "the only Democrat who matters".
Despite the magnitude of the Republican gains, the reality of the new political order will continue to be somewhat different than that outlined by the Republican leadership.
The voters in these elections were very unrepresentative of the nation as a whole. Turnout, always less in midterm elections, was at unprecedented lows, and was estimated at less than 40 per cent nationally. Older white Americans, who are most likely to consistently favour Republicans, made up 37 per cent of voters; voters aged under 30, the majority of whom supported Obama in 2008 and 2012, were just 13 per cent of those who voted.
Shockingly, in many states with Republican governors, there have been increasingly blatant attempts to suppress minority voting through voter identification requirements that in some places are effectively an unconstitutional poll tax, shortened early voting periods and limits on same-day voter registration. Minority voters are also disenfranchised in more subtle ways, with inadequately prepared polling places in precincts with minority populations resulting in long waiting times to vote.
Despite the skewed voting population, there were some unexpected results. When the new congress is sworn in in January, for the first time there will be more than one hundreds women among the 438 members of the House of Representatives. In Utah, Republican Mia Love defeated her Democrat opponent to become her party's first black congresswoman. In South Carolina, Republican Tim Scott became the first black senator elected in the South since Reconstruction. And even in the so-called red states there was strong support for progressive ballot measures such as paid sick leave, minimum wage laws and the legal use of marijuana while radical anti-abortion "personhood" measures were roundly rejected.
There is no denying that the national mood is uneasy and President Obama is unpopular. While economic indicators are improving, wages are stagnant and threats such as ISIS and Ebola loom large. A majority of Americans still say they dislike Obamacare health reforms. But primarily Americans are fed up with congressional gridlock and dysfunction and the overall direction of the nation.
It is not at all clear that this will change. With the election of Senate candidates like Cory Gardner from Colorado and Joni Ernst from Iowa the Republicans have turned further right. Many conservatives are suspicious of congressional GOP leaders Mitch McConnell and John Boehner, regarding them as Washington insiders who are too willing to negotiate with the White House or the Democrats.
Republicans should not mistake the general dissatisfaction with Obama's leadership as a mandate for right-wing remedies in key areas such as immigration, energy and taxation. President Obama says he is willing to find areas of common agreement with the GOP but has also said; "The principles that we are fighting for will not change". Moreover he still wields the right of veto and will certainly use it , while the Democrats will also still have the Senate filibuster to block legislation they don't like.
The optimistic view is that now the Republicans control the Congress, they will move on from just saying no, that President Obama will overcome his dislike of the dirty business of Congressional deal making, and that together they will tackle the issues Americans care about. But it is equally possible that the Congress will become even more polarised, between and within the parties, and as the ideological divide grows, Washington will remain mired in a gridlock that will not be broken until the 2016 elections.
Dr Lesley Russell is an adjunct associate professor at the Menzies Centre for Health Policy at the University of Sydney. She has worked as a policy advisor to Democrats in the US Congress and in the Obama Administration.