Win Eden-Monaro, conventional political wisdom has it, and federal government is yours. That's certainly been the case over the past 44 years, and while it's more likely this is a statistical aberration rather than an indication the voters of this sprawling rural seat outside the ACT possess unique political prescience, both major parties lavish considerable attention on them.
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High-profile Coalition visitors to Eden-Monaro over the past two weeks have included ministers Kelly O'Dwyer, Michael Keenan, Greg Hunt, Sussan Ley and Julie Bishop. On Monday, Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, accompanied by NSW Premier Mike Baird, toured the marginal seat to help drum up support for sitting MP Peter Hendy.
There were promises, naturally, but modest ones: infrastructure upgrades at the Port of Eden and the Merimbula airport costed at a mere $11.2 million. It was a pledge in keeping with the Coalition's portrayal of itself as the party of fiscal prudence – and its portrayal of Labor as reckless spendthrifts.
The Opposition has yet to properly train it sights on the seat, but with former MP Mike Kelly favoured by many, including betting agencies, to regain Eden-Monaro, a similar cavalcade of Labor heavy-hitters can be expected over the next four weeks, doubtless with pork barrel in tow.
For the voters of swinging seats like Eden-Monaro, which Dr Hendy holds by a margin of 2.9 per cent, the ministrations of politicians are welcome, even counted upon. One Eden local ventured to complain that the only problem was that "they make all these fancy promises and nothing happens". Such is life.
While some Eden-Monaro voters are exercised about the slow roll-out of the national broadband network and aged care availability, others have been casting an analytical eye over Dr Hendy's performance. Indeed, the view from some quarters is that he's little heard from and easy to miss in a crowd.
Compared with Dr Kelly, the former CEO of the Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry turned chief of staff to Brendan Nelson in 2008, maintains a low profile. But Dr Hendy's people skills, and his attention to voters' concerns, are said not to be in doubt. Moreover, he is likely to be elevated to the ministry in the event the Coalition is returned to office, having been a key figure in Mr Turnbull's leadership coup last September.
No-one is discounting Dr Kelly's chances. Indeed, in a sign of just how hard he has worked the electorate since preselection as Labor's candidate last May, one betting agency had Labor at $1.75 to regain the seat and the Coalition at $1.85 to retain it. The latest market has the two parties level-pegging.
Perhaps the biggest obstacle to Dr Kelly's hopes of a parliamentary second act is last year's re-distribution. The loss of parts of the South Coast, including Bateman's Bay and Moruya, and the inclusion of Yass, Tumut and Tumbarumba, have notionally improved the Coalition's prospects. But no one should discount the voters' partiality for taxpayer largesse.
