Joko Widodo, the former governor of Jakarta, has been formally announced as the victor of the Indonesia presidential campaign, having defeated his rival Prabowo Subianto by about 8 million votes of the 133 million cast.
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The result has seemed obvious for some time from exit polls conducted on election day, July 9, but the president-elect, universally known as Jokowi, has been careful about claiming victory, not least because his rival was unconvincingly claiming that widespread electoral fraud had deprived him of victory, and has not been incapable of inciting problems that might make legitimacy a real issue in the government of one of the world's largest democracies.This caution, from a perennial outsider with a strong appeal to ordinary Indonesians, is understandable enough given both Subianto's close links with the army and the political elite, and the fact that the powers of the president will depend considerably on the deals which Widodo must make with political groups and parties after he takes office on October 20.
Australians should welcome the election of Widodo, and not primarily because he is likely to be, in office, a good friend of the country, in the same manner that retiring President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono has been. That is important, but not anything like as important as the fact that Widodo seems the best man for Indonesia, from its own point of view.
He is an honest man – by background a small businessman – and his election represents a departure from government by insiders, cronies, middle-men and brokers, for insiders, cronies, middle-men and brokers, with corruption, unnecessary bureaucracy and red tape a substantial barrier to economic and social growth and development.
Although he has little international experience, he has more practical administrative experience in managing the ordinary business of government than any of his predecessors going back to the first president, Sukarno, whose daughter Megawati Sukarnoputri, herself a former president, is in Widido's party.
Widodo faces substantial domestic challenges, whether in improving the indifferent quality of health and education throughout the nation, in stabilising an economy in a slump, in reducing deficits, and, in particular, of weaning Indonesians away from unsustainable fuel subsidies, which consume a high proportion of his budget. Just as importantly he must deal with regional and local political systems in a highly decentralised state, not only so as to sharpen their efficiency and effectiveness in the organisation of services to its citizens but also so as to push and promote economic growth and development from which the whole population, rather than a corrupt few, may benefit. He must juggle regional, ethnic and religious differences, a political and administrative system which has long been very transactional, and wide disparities of income, infrastructure, poverty, and access to the cash economy.
Widodo has been a people's candidate, with a liberal rather than a conservative appeal; he understands perfectly well that his success in his new responsibilities will be judged according to whether he improves the lives of Indonesians, rather than by Indonesia's relationships with its neighbours. Australia wants such good relationships, but, even selfishly, also wants Indonesians to have good, honest and efficient government, in a strong, stable, growing and open economy. In the long run Australia benefits more from Indonesian security and prosperity than by comfortable understandings, friendships and capacity to get our way with an insider elite that prospers at the expense of the general population. That Indonesians feel much the same way can be seen by the way that they have rejected a candidate who, able and experienced in the way of the world, could have encapsulated a former ruling elite, with close links to the army, police and the Suharto family and the Javanese establishment, as well as considerable skill in marshalling, if ultimately unavailingly, a nationwide vote.
But if the focus is on effective domestic government, Indonesia's relationships with its neighbours and the world do matter. Indonesia is a lead player in ASEAN, and the development of south-east Asian economies, and its influence and its interests are significant in relation to the economic, political and military growth of China, Japan and India, as well as some of the current imperial claims to various islands (including by Indonesia) in the South China Sea.
Indonesia's own performance in the human rights field, not least in West Papua, is under critical international scrutiny. And Australia, generally a close friend and good neighbour, if hardly at the top of Indonesia's political concerns, is seen in Indonesia as having made all too many presumptions upon the relationship in its efforts to block any passage of refugees from Asia to Australia through Indonesia. The friendship was tested with Yudhoyono, some insult being added to injury when it became known that Australian spy agencies had been intercepting his wife's telephone calls.
During the election campaign, both candidates were positive about the relationship but stressed that they would not be taken for granted by Australia. The Abbott government should be taking care that it does not do so, by arranging ''on water'' activities more around domestic Australian considerations than respect for a good neighbour and old friend. Widodo is unlikely to be duchessed with mere fine words and expressions of affection.