For Malcolm Turnbull, the last sitting day of the federal Parliamentary year on Thursday probably can't come soon enough. Tony Abbott is becoming more insistent about returning to the ministry, Attorney-General George Brandis is implicated in another controversy, Senate crossbenchers want more concessions before supporting the Coalition's bill to restore the Australian Building and Construction Commission, and Mr Turnbull's approval ratings are sliding.
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More ominously for Mr Turnbull, the latest Fairfax Ipsos poll shows the Coalition now trailling Labor on a two-party preferred basis: 49 per cent to 51 per cent. Poll numbers aside, none of these minor flare-ups is directly of Mr Turnbull's doing. Taken together, however, they add to the growing perception that he is failing to deliver the "style of leadership that respects the people's intelligence, that explains [the] complex issues, and then sets out the course of action we believe we should take and makes a case for it".
The commitment Mr Turnbull made in September 2015 when he launched his bid to challenge Mr Abbott's leadership was always predicated on gaining an electoral mandate. But even after his endorsement by voters in July, the prime minister's policy meanderings and his truckling relationship with the Liberals' right have continued.
The double dissolution that was intended to rid the Senate of troublesome independents instead delivered an even more recalcitrant crossbench. Typical of this new reality is Nick Xenophon's demand that environmental flows in the Murray-Darling be maintained before his team supports the ABCC bill. To deliver on the Coalition's signature industrial relations bill, Mr Turnbull has to risk the wrath of the Nationals, whose leader, Barnaby Joyce, wants environmental flows reduced to help communities in southern Queensland and NSW.
Distracting from the efforts of Mr Turnbull to end the legislative year on a productive note is Senator Brandis, who it emerges was prominent in giving Commonwealth backing to a West Australian government bid to leapfrog the Tax Office and other secured creditors for a share of the $1.8 billion in assets held by the insolvent Bell Group. A High Court challenge launched by the ATO and advised by Commonwealth Solicitor-General Justin Gleeson derailed the WA bid, poisoning the relationship of the Commonwealth's No 1 and No 2 law officers.
Arguably, Mr Turnbull now has the grounds to sack Senator Brandis, and to reshuffle his ministerial line-up to include Mr Abbott. It would certainly seem politic to have the outspoken former prime minister back inside the tent, even at the risk of pushing a dumped Senator Brandis into the arms of Eric Abetz and other Turnbull critics.
If Mr Turnbull has any decent cards in his hand it is that no one in the Liberal Party – or the Labor party for that matter – represents a credible alternative to his leadership. But that advantage will disappear unless Mr Turnbull shows more stomach for strong and decisive leadership.
