Queensland Premier Campbell Newman is poised to lose his seat, while his Liberal National Party experienced an extraordinary backlash from voters as Labor secured massive swings in the state election campaign.
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Soon after polling closed on Saturday night, the LNP faced the likely loss of at least 20 seats.
Just three years after a securing a record win, a chastened LNP looked likely to hang on but with a vastly reduced majority.
At 7pm, and with just 5.4 per cent of the vote counted, the ABC was projecting the LNP had so far won 32 seats and Labor 32 seats.
The LNP had suffered a 7.3 per cent swing against it, with its primary vote falling to 42.3 per cent, while the ALP had enjoyed a 11.2 per cent swing towards it and a rise in its primary vote to 37.9 per cent.
Before the poll, the LNP held 73 of the Queensland parliament's 89 seats, while Labor held nine, after the wipeout in 2012.
With just over 7 per cent of the vote counted in the Premier's seat of Ashgrove, Labor's Kate Jones was seeing a swing to her of about 15 per cent, three times the 5.7 per cent margin she needed to unseat the Premier.
She led Mr Newman by 10 percentage points on the primary vote, 48-38.
Brisbane and North Queensland were the two areas where the biggest swings against the LNP were expected.
An early exit poll of 2500 people in 17 seats conducted by pollsters Galaxy for the Nine Network showed Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk was on track to replace Mr Newman as Premier after just one three-year term.
Labor had a 54-46 lead in the exit poll's two party-preferred count, while Mr Newman trailed Labor opponent Ms Jones 44-56 and a state-wide swing of 16.8 per cent was under way.
Labor insiders, however, said the exit poll results were preliminary and stressed that Labor faced a very tough task to secure the required state-wide swing of 12 per cent.
If, as expected, Mr Newman lost his seat, three MPs were in the frame to replace him – former leaders and current ministers John-Paul Langbroek and Lawrence Springborg, as well as Treasurer Tim Nicholls.
Mr Newman's expected loss came as federal Liberal anger at the impact of Tony Abbott's unpopularity boiled over, with federal LNP MP Mal Brough flagging he could bring on a leadership challenge to the Prime Minister.
Federal Attorney-General George Brandis conceded on Sky News that Mr Abbott's announcement of a knighthood for Prince Philip at the start of the campaign's final week was a distraction for the Newman government and cost the Premier.
Federal and state Liberal MPs also said debate about possible changes to the GST, industrial-relations reforms and a $20 cut to the rebate paid to doctors had also damaged the LNP's campaign.
One in five voters told a Sky News exit poll that federal political issues were very important in influencing their vote in the state poll.
