Josh Frydenberg fights back in the battle for Kooyong

Several years ago, Frydenberg dropped off Christmas hampers at Servants Community Housing in Melbourne's Kew, where Elwood lives. Since then, Frydenberg - who is the local federal MP - has played pool with Elwood. And helped him and other Servants residents see a Richmond Tigers training session.

It is perhaps an unlikely friendship for the Oxford and Harvard-educated Treasurer. Elwood has spent time in jail and had a three decades-long amphetamine addiction before turning his life around.

"He gives me a big cuddle every time he comes to my place," says Elwood, who also loves to take selfies with the Treasurer. "He's an amazing dude."

Elwood is such a fan of Frydenberg, he has become a Kooyong campaign volunteer. On Saturdays, Elwood puts on a blue T-shirt and hands out Frydenberg flyers and tote bags in Kew. If people don't want a bag, he implores them: "It's good for shopping! It's good to put your beer in!"

The extra help is needed in Kooyong. In January, former Liberal Party member Oliver Yates announced he would run as an independent to take "real action" on climate change.  In March, barrister Julian Burnside was a high-profile recruit for the Greens. Then there is Labor's candidate, Jana Stewart, a family therapist and policy adviser. Stewart is Indigenous and has familial ties to traditional owners of the area.  Meanwhile, groups such as Kooyong Votes Climate, are agitating at the grass roots, encouraging locals to vote for the candidate they think will do the best job to mitigate climate change.

Frydenberg holds the wealthy, inner-Melbourne seat on what should be an insurmountable margin of 12.8 per cent. But the Victorian election last November saw surprising swings against the Liberal Party and three of the four states seats within Kooyong are now held by Labor. "The whole of Melbourne is really volatile," Essential Media director Peter Lewis says. The October 2018 Wentworth byelection, where an independent won a blue ribbon Liberal seat, also shows voters are angry and traditions can be broken.

With reports the Liberal Party could double its spending, up to $1 million, in Kooyong, the situation is being taken seriously. As the Treasurer prepares his first budget, he is also preparing to defend his seat.

Yates, who is a former head of the Clean Energy Finance Corporation, is already in full campaign mode. He says the majority of Liberal voters he meets are not happy about the party's record on climate change and the influence of the hard right of the party.  The independent candidate dismisses Frydenberg's record as a moderate who spearheaded the now-dumped National Energy Guarantee last year: "I'd argue he's had all the opportunity to stand up." According to Yates,  Kooyong is "completely in play".

This week, Frydenberg posted a video to his social media accounts. Set to a stirring soundtrack, it is filled with local people singing his praises. Along with Elwood, there is a pharmacist, mental health worker, cafe and supermarket owners and groups that represent stroke patients, breast cancer sufferers and children with autism. There are kids at childcare, a netball player and a guide dog. There is even a group of nuns.

"Josh is our hero, absolute hero," one woman says, while a local drycleaner wonders whether Frydenberg is the only cabinet minister to pick up and drop off his own shirts.

While there is an obvious self-promotion aspect to the film, the fact that so many people would appear on his behalf also points to his strong local links. He is known as one of the hardest workers - and networkers - within the government. This extends to the effort he makes in his electorate, which he has never regarded as "safe". This means there is no standing start ahead of the 2019 campaign and the unexpected entrants into the race.  And yet, the fact that he made such a comprehensive video also suggests there is a level of concern. So too the Treasurer's requests to colleagues on Tuesday to retweet it.

"Just look at his behaviour," says Burnside. "He has taken time off to shoot a slick campaign video, just two weeks out from the most important federal budgets of his career."

Frydenberg tells The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age the video is about "giving people a snapshot of the community engagement that I've had". He also says he is not complacent about retaining his seat. "I'm very focussed on the campaign in Kooyong and delivering for my local community. I don't take anything for granted."

When asked about campaign spending in Kooyong, he says, "we'll spend money, just as the Greens, Labor and independents will."

Beyond the battle in Kooyong, the post-election period also looms. If the Coalition loses government, and Scott Morrison does not survive the aftermath, Frydenberg is seen as one of the main contenders for the Liberal leadership. If he can hold on to his seat.

Despite the high-profile challengers, political watchers still think Frydenberg will ultimately be safe.  Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist - who is a former chief of staff to Bob Brown - says Frydenberg's primary vote would need to knocked from 58 per cent to 45 per cent before he was in real danger of losing.

"And while not impossible that is a big ask for someone who is popular locally, despite national Coalition failures on climate policy."

Election analyst Kevin Bonham agrees Frydenberg is likely to retain the seat once held by Robert Menzies. "It seems like a big call, [Frydenberg's opponents] need an enormous swing."

But the extra attention required in the seat means one of the Coalition's key figures will not be as free to travel during the election. Given the government's plans to bounce from the budget, straight into the election campaign, the contest in Kooyong will have implications for the Coalition's overall efforts.

"It is fascinating in itself that the Treasurer in the lead up to the budget, on the eve of an election, has to be devoting infrastructure, emotion and finances for a fight that shouldn't be on anyone's table," says Oquist.