Tony Abbott's decision to contest the 2016 election presents a potential nightmare scenario for Malcolm Turnbull.
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The protests from Abbott's supporters that he is no Kevin Rudd are, for the time being, only about half right. The proof will be in how Abbott conducts himself in the year ahead.
Abbott ally Eric Abetz on Monday drew a sharp contrast between Rudd, the last former Australian prime minister to plan an extended stay on the backbench, and Abbott.
"Kevin Rudd was always about one thing only: Kevin Rudd. Whereas Tony Abbott has always been about one thing, namely, the Australian people," Abetz said.
Rudd would contest that claim, of course, but given he ran a three-year guerilla insurgency to take back the leadership from Julia Gillard it is hard to dispute. It is true that a deep commitment to community service has been a guiding principle for Abbott, much to his credit, in his 22 years in Parliament.
Another difference is that while Rudd's popularity with the public was often sky high and out of kilter with the dislike many in the party room felt for him, Abbott has had the opposite problem. Like Gillard, he has always been popular with colleagues, party loyalists, and liked by anyone who meets him, but he was never a popular leader with voters.
Abetz's assertion that comparisons are not valid simply does not pass the sniff test. Further, the comparison is inevitable, and will be made by voters whatever Pollyanna-esque reality the Abbott loyalists might wish to be true.
Australian voters are actually pretty damn smart and, if the focus-grouped lines that political parties try on them are any guide, don't always get the credit they deserve from major political parties.
They will watch Abbott, now that he has decided to stay in Parliament, and judge for themselves if he and his supporters continue to chip the Prime Minister and his frontbench colleagues on issues like national security and workplace relations.
If the rumblings of discontent continue, if the outbreaks of discord and factional enmity grow, they will mark down Abbott and his cohort.
But they will also mark down Turnbull and his Liberal team, and play Bill Shorten back into the game (and doesn't Labor know it).
A return to the frontbench for Abbott may salve the wound.
But it is not yet clear that Turnbull is willing to countenance this, nor if Abbott would be interested in such a return.
Abbott's unpopularity and the new leader's stratospheric ratings give Turnbull some measure of political protection; conversely, Abbott's popularity with the Liberal base, who will defend the former leader and his right to speak for conservatives to the last, will remain a potential problem for Turnbull, especially if he stumbles seriously down the track.
This is the nightmare scenario for the Prime Minister. He is all but powerless to discipline a former leader, with a rump of disaffected allies, who chooses to speak his mind from the backbench.
It is for Abbott to decide whether his future contributions help or hinder the Liberal Party.
