She should be able to clear that bar for two reasons - the realisation by MPs that he is prepared to tear Labor down to fulfil his ambitions, and because today's leadership ballot has come too early for him.

Rudd's plan was for Labor MPs to realise they couldn't win the election with Gillard as leader.

Caucus members were supposed see this clearly after analysing why Labor's support has been flat-lining, with no improvement in sight.

The Rudd camp believed it was only a matter of time - almost logical, really - until backbenchers in marginal seats would become increasingly nervous and, eventually, ask the Prime Minister to step down.

In other words, a remake of the June 2010 coup but less traumatic, classier somehow.

That's where the f-bomb video comes in.

Its release a week ago was a turning point in the slow burning campaign and underlines the saying that a week is a long time in politics.

The video of Rudd swearing in frustration at his inability to get a grip on a Chinese language script blew the façade off long-repeated denials from both sides that the leadership row was a media beat-up.

Rudd used an interview in the immediate aftermath of the video to make his first job application, suggesting he was a changed man, no longer the erratic, manic leader.

No one was expected to come forward and claim credit for the bombshell.

If it was released by Team Gillard, then it was an inspired move, because it brought on the ballot before Rudd was ready.

If it came from Rudd's camp, as a bid to bring the leadership issue into the sunlight at long last, it has backfired badly.

Last night Team Rudd was conceding its contender would not win today, unless many MPs are lying or are emboldened by the secret ballot to switch allegiance.

If he loses, the former foreign minister must hold a press conference before question time to confirm he puts the Labor Party ahead of his ambition and that he will go to the backbench and sit quietly.

But why would anyone believe that?

His supporters will be watching the polls closely over coming months.

For the last couple of months Gillard has been unable to get space to sell her considerable achievements due to the background hum of leadership tension and destabilisation.

Rudd's backers have been preaching that the PM's lack of popularity with voters had nothing to do with him, that it was all her work.

They seem amazed that other people couldn't see her failings as clearly as he does.

They point to her ''own goals'' - stumbling on Four Corners, omitting the Rudd government's achievements from her national conference speech, and going full speed with the Malaysia solution even though Tony Abbott was always going to vote against his own policy to defeat her.

The challenge today is for the Labor Party to regroup.

On current form, that looks unachievable, given the quite astonishing doses of hatred and bile that have been aired.

But Australians are used to their politicians lying so they might be able to swallow today's insincere statements of unity and loyalty.

Rudd suspects a second round of character assassination is coming his way - and so he should.

Team Gillard wants to trash his name to ensure his supporters do not engage in a two-stage process, with more whispering leading to another caucus ballot in a few months.

To avoid that, Gillard also has to put in a better performance and lift the government's stocks.

In Parliament's first week this year, she was upbeat, confident and assertive. Importantly, in the last week she has been unscripted.

She has to maintain this level of energy and being ''real'' to reconnect with Australians, if she is to get damaged Labor back in the field as a credible player.

Ross Peake is Political Editor

Twitter: rosspeakeCT