The loss of Simon Corbell at the next election matters to Labor because it sends a message of a party too tied up its own incomprehensible union and factional machinations to see the bigger picture, and because it leaves his seat, based around Woden and Weston, with no sitting candidates leading the campaign.
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The loss of Mary Porter matters rather less. Ms Porter clearly has a personal vote, and after Jon Stanhope left the Assembly she led the vote count for Labor in Belconnen by far at the last election.
But with her departure Labor still has two Assembly members standing in Belconnen, including the standout Yvette Berry, recently promoted to Cabinet. Plus it has a very good candidate in Uniting Church minister Gordon Ramsay, although he is yet to confirm his candidacy publicly.
Ms Porter leaving looks to be her own decision, but nevertheless has a silver lining for Andrew Barr in that as a new chief minister heading a government very long in the teeth, it helps him present a fresh team and rejuvenated image.
And in any case, the action for Labor, and for the Liberals, is all in Gungahlin.
With the shift to five electorates of five members each, the election landscape has simplified, with virtually no doubt at all that Labor and Liberal will win two seats each in each electorate (even Labor's worst result in history, when it got well under 30 per cent of the vote in 1998, still delivered the party two seats in the five-member electorates).
The real question is, who wins the fifth seat in each electorate. Whoever wins government will need to win the final seat in three of the five electorates. In Labor's case, this is easier since it can count a Green win as one for itself.
The Liberals need the final seat in the two southern electorates – Tuggeranong, which should be the most straightforward for them, and Woden-Weston, where they have the advantage of leader Jeremy Hanson standing, as well as the saleable Giulia Jones. Plus the added bonus of a field of newbies in the Labor camp, with Corbell resigning after being put in last spot on the preselection ticket by his own faction.
Labor has the final seat in the central electorate in the bag via the likely election of the Greens' Shane Rattenbury, and is counting on winning a third (either itself or the Greens) in its stronghold of Belconnen. Ms Porter's departure could perhaps cost them some of her personal votes, but if Labor had any serious concerns about not getting three seats in the electorate (with the Greens' help), it might as well give up on the election now.
Which brings the count to 12 seats each, and leaves Gungahlin the place where the election will be won, looking like this:
Tuggeranong: 2 Labor, 3 Liberal
Woden-Weston: 2 Labor, 3 Liberal
Centre: 3 Labor-Green, 2 Liberal
Belconnen: 3 Labor-Green, 2 Liberal
Gungahlin: 2 Labor, 2 Liberal, 1 up for grabs
None of this is guaranteed, of course, and Labor is very wary of making assumptions, even the assumption that it will win two in each electorate. The Greens also want to win more than one seat, hoping to make headway in Woden-Weston and in Belconnen, especially – a result that would only bring relief to Labor. But it is certainly the most likely scenario and the one around which the election strategies will be built.
