John Barilaro's election as NSW Nationals Party leader on Tuesday was unopposed, his colleagues having decided that rivalry and infighting might be counter-productive at this low point in the party's political fortunes. If the party room actually intended a public show of unity, then it was a wise move for the Nationals appear to be in deep disfavour with voters following last weekend's Orange by-election.
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The Nationals have held Orange since 1947, and at the 2015 state election Andrew Gee retained it for the party with a margin of 21.7 per cent. So when Mr Gee resigned to contest the federal seat of Calare at the 2016 federal election, few people would have seen it as anything other than an opportunity to send a new Nationals face to Macquarie Street. That's not what voters were entertaining, however.
Scott Barrett, the Nationals' candidate suffered a swing against him in the first preference count of 33.8 per cent. At the time of writing, the after-preference swing against him was 21.8 per cent, and unless postal and absentee votes favour the Nationals, Philip Donato (the candidate of the Shooters Fishers and Farmers party) will be the new MLA for Orange.
The preference swap deal struck between the Shooters and Labor before the by-election was undoubtedly a factor in Mr Donato's strong two-party preferred showing. However, general dissatisfaction with the Nationals' performance in government, crystallized around its controversial support for Premier Mike Baird's now abandoned greyhound racing ban, may have been a far larger contributor to the Orange disaster.
Former leader Troy Grant's decision to publicly back the proposed greyhound racing ban without first discussing the issue in the party room, was controversial, and for good reason. Whatever Mr Grant's own feelings about the morality of state-sanctioned greyhound racing (and even, for that matter, his desire to play the loyal lieutenant to Mr Baird) he ought to have recognised that a ban (especially one couched in non-negotiable terms) would anger many of Nationals' working class and farming constituency.
If the Nationals believed Mr Baird's reversal of the greyhound racing ban last month would enable it to retain Orange, the party clearly underestimated the general level of dissatisfaction in areas outside the big cities.
Country people have always though governments paid too little attention to their concerns – which is why the Country Party came into being in 1913 in WA and in 1920 nationally. However, general discontent has intensified in recent years as a result of issues like fracking, the resumption of good farming land by coal mines, and forced council amalgamations (another Baird government initiative).
To describe the Orange by-election as signifying the rise of Donald Trump-like populist politics in Australia may be making too much of the result. Unless, however, the NSW Nationals under John Barilaro regroup and reconnect with their core constituency, they may lose further ground to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers in future.
