Cancer diagnoses in Canberra are expected to grow to more than 2500 cases in the next decade, according to a new report predicting the ACT will have the second-highest growth in cancer cases in the country.
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The cancer incidence projections released by the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare estimates there will be 2541 new cases of cancer diagnosed in the ACT in 2024.
The report indicates the rate of new cancer cases in the ACT will increase at an average annual rate of 4.4 per cent from 2009 – the second-highest in the country after Western Australia.
There were 1524 cancer cases in the ACT in 2010, with the report predicting cases will rise to 2026 next year, increasing to 2317 by 2020 and 2541 by 2024.
Nationally, it is estimated there will be 169,648 new cases of cancer diagnosed in Australia in 2024, with an annual average increase of 3.3 per cent from 2010.
''Cancer incidence in Australia is projected to rise due to an expected increase in both the underlying cancer rates and in the Australian population over the age of 65,'' the report said.
''As a result, planning for cancer treatment services must anticipate future trends and age structures.
''Demand for radiotherapy treatment services is highly dependent on the number of new cancer cases diagnosed. Hence, estimates of future cancer incidence play an important role in health resource planning.''
Associate Professor Chris Milross, president of the Royal Australian and New Zealand College of Radiologists, said such reports were important to help plan for future cancer treatment services.
''Statements that project the cancer load help us in the sense of policy direction but they also help us in terms of planning,'' he said.
''The relevance to planning for cancer care is that it tells you where you need a particular effort – namely those jurisdictions with greater than average projected case load.
''It also allows you to plan for what you need in a way that is based upon the best model of care that we know that cancer needs to be treated with.''
Most recent evidence estimates about 48 per cent of new notifiable cancers in Australia should receive at least one course of radiotherapy, the report said.
Dr Milross said radiation oncology services could not be developed in isolation.
''We go hand in glove with other essential cancer services,'' he said.
''At present, unfortunately, there does seem to be a significant gap in patients accessing radiation oncology treatment and that needs to be closed. How to close that gap is quite complex. Some of it is around resource allocation and workforce training but there are other issues that need to be sorted.''
The ACT government allocated $10.4 million for more cancer services and staff in its 2014-15 budget. The budget included $8.5 million to provide more staff and services at the Canberra Region Cancer Centre and $1.9 million to expand lymphoedema services at Calvary Hospital.
