The ACT's services sector will be a big winner from the free-trade agreement between Australia and China, according to an ANU economist.
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Dr Andrew Stoeckel from the Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, says once people acquired the basics like a home and car they began to shop for services like better healthcare and education.
Huge opportunities are also expected for wine exporters in the Canberra region, dairy farmers and in the longer term water traders based in the national capital.
Canberra's wine producers and exporters have welcomed the agreement, which cut tariffs by 14 to 20 per cent over four years.
Inland Trading Co in Canberra exports wine to China every week. Principal Greg Corra recently signed a single order for $2.2 million and says he could sell every drop of wine from Clonakilla, the ACT's premier producer, because of massive demand in China.
Mr Corra said the FTA coupled with the falling Australian dollar was terrific. China's rapid growth was beyond comprehension. One of his Chinese clients alone had 77 outlets, which would grow to 115 by the end of this year and 220 next year.
"I firmly believe in five years time China will be Australia's biggest wine market," Mr Corra said.
"They are number three now. By volume the United Kingdom is our biggest customer. By value it is still the United States. But in the UK, the market is not growing."
Helm Wines founder Ken Helms said non-exporters in the Canberra wine industry would welcome the FTA.
"It will be fantastic for exporters, but we mustn't forget it will also free up the market for domestic producers. They [exporters] will not be dumping wine here, which gives us an opportunity. I would like to see the Australian dollar come back to [US] 75 cents which will open up the United States for us too."
Dairy tariffs will be cut over the next four years, but Dr Stoeckel says this will not necessarily lead to higher milk prices in Australia.
He said much depended on the supply response, and producers had flexibility to switch out of one product into another.
"The reason [Australian] sheepmeat exports are doing so well is New Zealand is getting out of sheepmeat because they are finding it more lucrative to be in dairy. Australia will make that same switch. You have to look at the total market, not one product and say 'this will happen'.
"For Australian consumers to have the best product we need strong productivity in Australian agriculture, that's what will deliver a better product at a better price."
Dr Stoeckel is optimistic about the services sector, pointing out education is already Australia's third largest export earner, and a significant business for the ACT, which also stands to gain from tourism growth.
He predicts as China grows it will run into enormous water scarcity problems, and Australia, the driest continent on the planet, led the world on water trading and water markets.
Addressing those water issues was a huge opportunity, and much of Australia's expertise was in Canberra, with the National Water Commission and similar bodies.
"There are a lot of business services here in Canberra, legal, design, education, health. The important thing that is happening is China is developing and has an average level of income, far less than Australia and America.
"Once through the development stage of housing, cars, roads and so on, over time that build phase will continue, but China will quickly mature, and slowly services become more important."
Demand for resources wouldn't taper, bringing demand for services to the fore.
