Former member for Eden-Monaro Gary Nairn says he wasn't surprised to see his Liberal successor ousted, despite helping Peter Hendy on the campaign trail.
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Mr Nairn said Dr Hendy should have made himself more available to the electorate in the lead-up to the federal election on Saturday, after a 6.43 per cent swing against the Liberal MP as of Tuesday afternoon saw him lose his seat after one term.
"The feedback I've been getting from right around the electorate for quite some time was that there was going to be a shift so in that sense I wasn't surprised," Mr Nairn said.
"[Mike] Kelly didn't win, Peter really lost and while he achieved quite a number of things, he didn't connect with the people and that was really the aspect that went against him."
Although vote counting continued on Tuesday, Dr Hendy conceded defeat on Saturday, saying: "It would appear that we have fallen short of the votes required to retain Eden-Monaro".
In relinquishing the seat to Labor's Mike Kelly, Dr Hendy said he was proud of the campaign he waged and delivering "improved mobile phone coverage, record spending on local roads and rolling out the National Broadband Network".
But voters in Eden-Monaro have previously accused Dr Hendy of being largely absent during his three years in office, even failing to turn up to community events during the campaign.
On the ABC on Saturday night, Dr Kelly dubbed Dr Hendy a "unicorn", saying voters had heard of him, but never seen him.
The marginal electorate that takes in Yass to the north, Tumut to the west, the Snowy Mountains to the south and seaside villages such as Narooma and Eden to the east was flooded with Liberal party high flyers in recent months to help Dr Hendy hang onto the seat. Mr Nairn was one of them.
"Great to have former Eden-Monaro MP Gary Nairn on the hustings today as part of Team Hendy, campaigning for the return of the Turnbull Liberal Government," a post on Dr Hendy's since deleted official Facebook page said.
The former MP who also helped Dr Hendy to wrest the seat from Dr Kelly during the 2013 campaign said even though he spent time at pre-poll centres in Queanbeyan and Cooma and a large part of Saturday at booths at Jerrabomberra, he knew keeping the seat would be "almost impossible".
"It's a big electorate, it's a diverse electorate so you've got to be constantly getting from town to town and meeting with the right people and talking with the right people in those towns [particularly in your first term] to build up that connection and I think that's the aspect that was missing," Mr Nairn said.
"People didn't feel that they really knew who Peter was, even though he'd been the member for three years. Kelly had a profile from having been there for two terms, he just needed to show up on Saturday and we got the result that we did."
Mr Nairn, who represented the electorate for more than a decade, has previously said a strong relationship with voters right across the electorate would be key to winning Eden-Monaro.
Dr Hendy had previously praised Mr Nairn's record in office as "someone who understood and cared about our community".
"Gary has set the benchmark for effective representation in Eden-Monaro in recent times," he told Fairfax Media last year.
Eden-Monaro looks set to produce an historic result in the 2016 federal election as the positive swing to Labor could spell the end to the seat's bellwether status.
Mr Nairn said he would be disappointed if the seat lost its place leading the flock.
"It's been a bellwether seat longer than any other electorate in the country. If the Coalition can get a majority, no matter how slim it is, it'll be the first time in 44 years the people of Eden-Monaro won't have their member as part of the government and for the broader area that's quite sad as well," he said.
