There's always a requirement for presidents and prime ministers – particularly those of major powers – to act firmly and decisively after major military or terrorist attacks. And Francois Hollande did just that after Friday's carnage in Paris – declaring war on Islamic State and vowing that "we are going to fight, and our fight will be merciless". In the shocking aftermath of the slaughter, Mr Hollande struck precisely the right note of defiance and resolve, dispelling in the process his reputation as one of the more ineffectual French presidents of recent memory. On Sunday, French warplanes gave effective voice to Mr Hollande's vow by bombing Islamic State targets in the group's stronghold in northern Syria.
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French aircraft were already flying missions over Iraq in support of the US-led aerial campaign against IS. Extending operations to Syria (and the IS strongholds of Mosul and Raqqa) is a natural progression for France now that Mr Holland has announced the gloves are off. But after the bombing of Raqqa, what will be his next step in the campaign to avenge Paris?
More strategic detail should be forthcoming in the days and weeks ahead, but a military invasion of Syria is unlikely to be on the cards. Even a surgical strike aimed at crippling IS leadership (which might assuage popular anger and help restore wounded French pride) would seem problematic given legal and sovereignty questions, the presence in Syria of Iranian and Russian military forces, and France's own military limitations. The other tactic most likely to bring military pressure to bear on IS – supporting Bashar al-Assad in his bid to retake the strongholds of Raqqa and Mosul – is out of the question as Mr Hollande (and the US) remain committed to the Syrian president's removal. Another possible option for Mr Hollande is leading renewed attempts at an international solution to IS's presence in Syria and Iraq. But the ethnic, regional and political rivalries are fiendishly complex and murky, and indeed are the reason past diplomatic initiatives have all foundered. Even were IS to be sidelined or countered there's every chance the other al-Qaeda inspired affiliate in Syria, the Nusra Front, would step into the power vacuum.
Realistically, Mr Hollande has only limited military options – and with his refusal to back the Assad regime's attempts to defeat IS, he will need to defend the home front with more than usual vigilance. The military, police and intelligence services are certain to be handed more money and greater powers, and the free and easy movement of people and goods into and out of France may be curtailed. But as Friday's attacks demonstrated, soft targets abound in Paris, and all over France, and defending them against committed and well-armed terrorists is near impossible. Nor, despite efforts to prevent young Muslims from becoming radicalised, is it possible to keep tabs on a Muslim population of some 6 million and growing.
Unless France adopts new approaches to this home-grown threat, it may be in for many years of terrorist atrocities.
