The Coalition's hopes of governing in a calm, sober and deliberative manner - the better to highlight the alleged "chaos'' of the minority Labor government - will be determined to a large extent by how it handles "events'' that have the potential to blow it off course. Events like marriage equality. Though opposed to discrimination on the basis of gender or sexuality, incoming prime minister Tony Abbott opposes marriage equality, and last year blocked a conscience vote by Liberal Party MPs on the issue. If he hoped his opposition to it - reiterated in the election campaign - would dampen expectations of change, the states and territories are not sticking to the script.
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In July, a NSW State Parliament inquiry concluded that there was no constitutional impediment to states enacting laws for same-sex marriage, and with Liberal Premier Barry O'Farrell having promised a conscience vote on the issue, it's possible a private member's bill could be voted on by the end of the year. And, on Thursday, the ACT government will introduce its own marriage equality bill, some seven years after a similar bill was overturned by the Howard government. The Commonwealth's power to disallow territory laws has been substantially watered down under changes introduced in the last Parliament and, with the Coalition lacking a controlling vote in the Senate, any attempt to veto a new ACT same-sex marriage law could be doomed to failure. A constitutional challenge is still possible, however.
With the Howard government having redefined the federal Marriage Act in 2004 as the union of a man and woman to the exclusion of others, the success of a legal bid to stymie same-sex laws might seem assured. However, as constitutional lawyer George Williams has pointed out, the constitution grants the Federal Parliament "a concurrent, rather than exclusive power to make marriage laws. As with other areas such as taxation, this means that the states also retain power in the area''.
While other lawyers might dispute that view, legal momentum for same-sex marriage (based as it is on claims of equality and the preservation of states' rights) looks to be building. Indeed, it is unlikely Mr O'Farrell would be countenancing a conscience vote if he felt it was an electorally unpopular measure. The ACT government, of course, has long claimed a popular mandate for its reforms.
With same-sex marriage laws likely at the state and territory level sooner rather than later, Mr Abbott faces a tricky dilemma: continue to uphold an increasingly untenable policy position - even as other Liberal governments embrace marriage equality - or acknowledge changed public opinion and agree to a conscience vote.
A Spartan government
While the Lodge undergoes much-needed renovations to make it habitable, Tony Abbott has chosen to bunk at the Australian Federal Police college in Barton when in Canberra. The prime minister-elect's new accommodation is adequate, though hardly befitting his new status as Australia's highest public office holder. Mr Abbott is fond of getting up before dawn and going on punishing bike rides, and may be perfectly happy with such Spartan accommodation. Of course, the AFP college is close to Parliament House, and it so happens to be the Canberra domicile of Mr Abbott's security detail. The savings may be minor, but the symbolism could be priceless if indeed Mr Abbott wants to broadcast the message to the public service that "if I can live frugally, so can you''.
In a similar though probably not coincidental development, incoming foreign minister Julie Bishop has reportedly told Foreign Affairs staff that luxury hotel accommodation will not be necessary on her upcoming trip to New York, and that they should book her in business class rather than in first class on future flights.
Having won government on the promise that it would reduce public sector spending, the Coalition appears ready to lead by example - a refreshing if novel approach.
