High Court decision leaves ACT Labor with a tangled preselection mess

It may look like good luck the territory is gaining a third federal seat just as a respected Labor senator is ejected from parliament. What could have been an easy route back for the former chief minister is more fraught.

A layer of factional obligations, and another created by Labor's affirmative action rules, creates a maze of compromises and options for a party that has a firm electoral grip on the ACT.

Ms Gallagher appears decided on returning to Parliament by some route, and the ALP obviously wants her back. Less clear are the intentions of her successor, David Smith, who wouldn't be drawn on Wednesday about whether he would stand aside if she wanted another run at the Senate.

With three lower house seats and one winnable Senate spot, Labor's rules crowd an electoral space that at first glance looks so spacious for two ALP candidates.

Andrew Leigh is not factionally aligned within Labor, and has said he will put his hand up for the seat of Fenner, set to cover Gungahlin and most of Belconnen. The right faction's Gai Brodtmann, currently member for Canberra, will nominate for preselection in the proposed southern-most seat of Bean.

That leaves the new inner-city seat of Canberra without a Labor incumbent, and a new factional power struggle that threatens to squeeze out someone.

If Mr Smith retains the winnable Senate position, and Dr Leigh and Ms Brodtmann return to their seats as expected, it would seem likely that a candidate from Labor's left faction will glide through the preselection process for Canberra.

Labor's affirmative action rules would mean that the seat would be required go to a woman. Ms Gallagher fits the bill on both counts, if she wants to take that path.

The solution is less neat than it appears. Canberra's third seat might not prove to be a permanent fixture with population changes and redistributions, making a lower house gig less attractive. Ms Gallagher added clout to Labor's Senate team and was an effective interrogator in estimates hearings.

Sources within Labor have speculated Ms Gallagher would be unlikely to nominate for the House of Representatives, and the rank-and-file would be more likely to endorse her return to the Senate than Mr Smith.

If Mr Smith decides to hang on, there could be an internal fight ahead. Labor has had months of doubt, but these have also been months to prepare for such scenarios. It heard the bad news on Wednesday without having an apparent plan to announce afterwards. Canberra will have to watch it unfold instead.