Treasurer's budgets bring cash to Kingston and pain to Mount Druitt

The data tells a story of winners and losers with Kingston and Barton – a temporary home for many politicians on parliamentary business – among the least affected suburbs in Australia.

Households near the southern bank of Lake Burley Griffin are tipped to be $133.30 better off in the 2018-19 financial year, while those in Mount Druitt are tipped to lose an average of $1066.10.

The Western Sydney suburb became a focus on national attention when it starred in the SBS documentary on the impact of entrenched poverty.

The modelling was conducted by the National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling, one of Australia's most respected economic modellers. It was not commissioned by Labor or any other political party.

It provides a snapshot of the average annual dollar impact on the typical household in the 2018-19 financial year because that is when most policies will have kicked in.

Mean impact per household in 2018-19 of the first two Abbott government budgets. Source: NATSEM

Of the 100 suburbs tipped to be best off as a result of Mr Hockey's two budgets, 19 were from the ACT with Kingston and Barton ranked sixth and Forrest at 15th.

Households in Kingston, Barton, Forrest, Civic, Griffith, Hughes Deakin, Narrabundah and Forde all stand to be better off in 2018/19 as a result of the Treasurer's first two budgets.

The hardest suburbs in the ACT were Gungahlin were households stand to lose $261.90, while those in Dunlop, Isabella Plains and Ngunnawal will lose $254, $247 and $226 respectively.

Households in Bonner, Conder, Downer, Kambah, Mcgregor and Florey will all lose between $200 and $220 in 2018/18.

Ben Phillips, principal research fellow at NATSEM who prepared the modelling, said he was not surprised southern Canberra stood to be better off than other areas.

"Households across all of Canberra stand to be $104 better off while nationally, the average household will be about $230 out of pocket," he said.

"The western suburbs [in Sydney] and south-western suburbs is where the main impact will be felt, reflecting a higher loss of around $1000 a year."

South Canberra is one of only three regions likely to be better off with households expected to pocket $19.40, compared to $7.30 in Sydney's north-eastern suburbs and 50¢ cents in Leichhardt.

Those living in Sydney's Darlinghurst – nestled in Malcolm Turnbull's safe seat of Wentworth – were the least affected in Australia and will be $177.90 better off in 2018/19.

The data also found nine of the 10 suburbs worst affected by the combined impacts of the Abbott government's first two budgets were in Labor-held seats.

The data is a continuation of modelling NATSEM completed for Labor immediately after the government's second budget, but matches those findings with Census data to break results down to suburbs.

Mr Phillips said there was nothing controversial about the economic modelling at it had become standard practice for the centre in recent years.

"We had to statistically model the impact of the budgets by using Census data to obtained detailed information on the socio-economic status of all suburbs"

NATSEM says the benefit of modelling the cumulative impact of both budgets is that it shows the financial impact of every policy change from the last two budgets, including the removal of the carbon tax, the petrol excise increase, and the government's new child care package and Aged Pension changes.

- with Gareth Hutchens