In the Snowy Mountains it's a fine line between snowy weather and rain, and, judging by current forecasts, the ski slopes could teeter on that precipice for most of the season.
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A big dump of snow which left about 20 centimetres on the higher peaks just a couple of weeks ago has largely been washed away by warm weather and rain, which will likely continue for the next few days.
Bureau of Meteorology forecaster Sean Carson said the tropical moisture from the north-west will no longer meet a cold front from the south, as was earlier hoped – which means rain, not snow for the mountains.
“I was hopeful maybe 48 hours ago that another cold front moving through the Southern Ocean might have linked up to the trough and actually given us a really big snow event,” Mr Carson said.
“It's been a close call, but it looks like it's going to rain right through to Saturday night midnight, and then it will tend to snow on Sunday morning based on the current guidance, but it will be like 100 millimetres of rain followed by maybe 5 centimetres of snow, so definitely much more damage than good.”
Mr Carson said good conditions for snowmaking will return next week, when the resorts will start repairing the damage done by the rain.
“I think at this stage you'd have to say the opening ski weekend will be limited to manmade snow for places like Thredbo's Friday Flats and limited areas on Perisher's front valley – the two main snow making areas. It's pretty normal, but not a great start. It's just unfortunate because it did look really good up until a couple of days ago.”
With warmer ocean temperatures predicted off the north-west coast of Australia for winter, the touch and go conditions look set to continue for the duration of the ski season.
“Typically in seasons like that we tend to see a few big rain events and the odd big snow event, so trying to jag a good week up at the snow can be pretty much pot luck. You can be out there one week and get great conditions, the next week it can be pretty warm and wet,” Mr Carson said.
Perisher spokesman Neil Thew said the resort was busily preparing for the June long weekend opening, and said the unexpected early snow a couple of weeks ago was encouraging for the ski resorts.
He said Perisher constantly reviewed the latest information from BOM, but also had invested $22 million in snowmaking technology over the past seven years, including $1.65 million over the past summer, to guarantee a good start to the season.
“It gives us that surety that we can produce snow pre-season, lay a bit of a base and foundation, and our customers and our guests can see that we've got snow on the ground in time for the opening,” he said.
“You never know what Mother Nature is going to do, do you. It's tough, you can't predict it. I've love to say we're going to have lots of snow and we'll have a gangbuster start to the season, but you've just got to ride it out, see what happens, hope for the best, and that's why you have snowmaking as well, so you can produce snow when the conditions aren't right even if Mother Nature doesn't produce it for us.”
John and Liezel Portelli brought their kids from Sydney to enjoy their first taste of the snow in the pre-season on Wednesday, while it was still quiet.
“We've always been to beaches, and water. This is our first time in this kind of environment,” Mrs Portelli said. “Especially the kids were like 'there should be snow, or else.'”
Mr Portelli said the fresh air and the peacefulness of the mountains were a welcome break from Sydney.
“It's like another world here. There's no traffic, there's no pollution … it's breathtaking, the trip from Jindabyne here, with the sights out the window. I didn't think it'd be as nice as Switzerland, but it comes close, very close.”
