The national conversation turned rather suddenly in the past week towards road safety. As is usual, the Christmas and New Year period coincided with a sharp increase in road deaths across Australia. Almost 70 people died during this period, near double the average amount of recent years.
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It's understandable that these deaths sparked a policy debate. Yet while each death represents a tragic (and almost always avoidable) loss, it's worth noting that we're not suffering from a growing road-safety crisis. There were fewer deaths in 2017 than in the previous year; indeed, the long-term trend has been one of gradual reduction, despite our growing population.
In any event, the annual toll is not the most useful indication of whether our roads are becoming more or less dangerous. The best measures, published by the federal Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics, are the rates of road-related injuries, adjusted for population and for kilometres travelled in a vehicle. These rates have barely budged in 13 years. In other words, the many efforts to better design, build and police our traffic systems have made us neither safer nor more at risk.
Nonetheless, the status quo – that, each year, road crashes will hospitalise 15 out of every 1000 Australians – is unacceptable. The direct and indirect costs are vast.
The latest Christmas misery has already led to some useful discussion about how we might move beyond this safety impasse. The Victoria government is trialling truck-free lanes on one of its highways. NSW police want to lower speed limits on country roads and the power to test drivers for cocaine use. In turn, traffic safety expert John Crozier says NSW politicians need to make the unpopular decision to use average-speed cameras to book speeding car drivers (they are presently used only to book truck drivers). The doctors' lobby wants tougher penalties against people who use phones while driving, and the regulation of couriers and taxi drivers' hours behind the wheel.
Meanwhile, the Australian Automobile Association, with federal Transport Minister Barnaby Joyce's backing, says abolishing tariffs on cars would lead to more of us driving newer, and hence safer, vehicles. Frankly, with no domestic car-making industry left to protect, this should have happened already.
Each of these ideas warrant serious consideration. Each may improve road safety – marginally. Yet none will make a dramatic difference.
The opportunity to do that, however, is approaching. The era of automated driving will force governments to rethink traffic systems from first principles. Which vehicles will be allowed on which roads, and which lanes of roads? At what time of the day? At what speed? With or without people inside?
Will the integrated traffic networks of the future prioritise public transport, full cars, energy-efficient vehicles or drivers who are willing to pay more for a faster journey?
This huge planning task brings with it many opportunities to change the way we travel for the better. It's also the only means by which we will significantly improve road safety.
The most important question is: are our governments preparing now for this future, or will we still be asking these questions a decade from today?
