The federal government would be ''barking mad'' to commit to a locally designed and built Collins submarine replacement, the naval officer who was commanding HMAS Collins until last month has said.
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The navy would end up with no submarines at all for several years and, as a result, lose its experienced submariners, Commander (retired) James Harrap said.
Commander Harrap left the navy to take up a position in the resources sector on Monday.
He believes pundits and defence industry figures advocating a submarine life extension program for Collins into the 2030s to allow local design and construction of a replacement are ignoring the fact it can't be done.
Submariners operating the existing boats spend more time fighting ''the enemy within'' than thinking about an external threat, he said.
''Being a submariner has always required a skilled blend of operator/technician unique within naval service but the Collins class has taken the technical arguments to a whole new level. The constant stream of defects and operation control limitations makes getting to sea difficult, staying at sea harder and fighting the enemy a luxury only available once the first two have been overcome.
''The [Collins] boats will most likely be so technically obsolete by 2022 the credibility of the capability they offers will be seriously eroded.''
Commander Harrap, who has written an article calling for an injection of reality into the future submarine debate for publication in the next edition of the Australia Pacific Defence Reporter, said any Collins replacement would have to be reliable.
His criticisms follow an Australian Strategic Policy Institute paper that argues the best future submarine option is to buy an existing design from an established manufacturer. This could see boats being delivered from 2020, if a decision is made now.
ASPI analysts Mark Thomson and Andrew Davies said: ''Not only will a gap in the submarine capability be avoided without a Collins submarine life extension program and its attendant risks, but the 2009 white paper aim of doubling the fleet size by 2030 can be achieved.''
The ASPI paper drew a swift response from navy chief Vice-Admiral Ray Griggs who issued a statement to all naval personnel defending his submarines and their crews.
''There is no denying submarine availability is not where it needs to be,'' he said. ''[But] our submarine arm has grown steadily since 2008 and has a healthy training pipeline.''
Vice-Admiral Griggs said life extension studies were underway. ''We are conducting the analysis [to] assess the ability of the Collins-class to operate beyond the time we originally intended to decommission the boats.''
He said the submarines retained their ''relevance as a potent strategic capability''.
While Mr Davies and Mr Thomson are open-minded on whether or not the next submarines should be built by ASC in Adelaide, Commander Harrap is opposed. ''We need to match our aspirations with our reality,'' he said. ''We can't afford to set ourselves impossible requirements because we will surely fail to meet them.
''We don't need the best submarine money can buy; but rather the best submarine capability we can afford.''
The 2009 Defence white paper called for a locally designed and built fleet of 12 replacement submarines that would cost a staggering National Broadband Network-equivalent spend of about $36 billion.
Off-the-shelf submarines designed and built overseas would probably cost less than half that.
