The Coalition government's expected sprint to a budget surplus is unlikely to happen on the back of any cuts to the federal bureaucracy, an economic analyst says.
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Deloitte Access Economics partner Chris Richardson said public servants - who would remember past painful efforts to reduce deficits - had little to fear in the lead-up to the next budget in April, as a surge in revenue brought the nation closer to a surplus faster than expected.
Pre-election sweeteners in marginal electorates could emerge but any push to cut more of the bureaucracy was not on the cards and wouldn't get through parliament.
Mr Richardson said past cuts to the public service had not brought the federal government to the cusp of achieving a surplus.
"As recently as the middle of 2016, the federal budget was running a deficit of $40 billion," he said.
"By that stage, cuts to the public service were already in the rear view mirror."
An improving economy, and particularly increasing Chinese demand for Australian coal and iron ore, were the reason behind the turnaround.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison on Tuesday revealed plans for a budget update on December 17 and a full budget on April 2, promising they would reveal a surplus and confirm the Coalition’s economic management.
The timetable puts the nation on course for an election on May 11 or May 18, in a campaign that begins with a major economic statement and an improvement in Commonwealth finances.
The government is on track for a deficit of $4.9 billion this year but Mr Morrison hinted at an improvement by May to prove the Coalition is delivering results.
