The pay dispute between public servants and the Coalition government could drag on until 2018 after the industrial umpire ordered one department into arbitration with its main workplace union.
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And the government's hardline industrial bargaining policy now faces the scrutiny of the full bench of the Fair Work Commission as it mediates in the dispute between the Immigration Department and its workforce.
It is possible the commission might order concessions from the department that fall outside the Abbott-era policy, which would seriously undermine the position of public service bosses who for three years have insisted they could agree to nothing that was outside the "bargaining framework".
About 100,000 public servants are still resisting attempts to impose new workplace deals under the tough bargaining policy devised under Tony Abbott's prime-ministership, while more than 50,000 have accepted enterprise agreements developed under the policy.
But Immigration Department boss Mike Pezzullo warned the arbitration process might take up to 18 months, well into 2018, to settle a dispute that has been raging since 2013.
The Fair Work Commission made its orders on Thursday afternoon after telling the Community and Public Sector Union to halt strikes by Immigration and Border Control public servants at air and sea ports around the country.
Immigration had successfully argued the industrial action was putting national security at risk.
But it was the union claiming a victory on Thursday, telling members that the move to arbitration was their best chance of securing a better deal than those they had previously rejected.
"This represents a win for CPSU members as we now have a clear way forward for the independent umpire to move towards resolving this three year dispute," a union bulletin announced.
"In making a decision about pay and conditions in an arbitration, the FWC full bench is informed by the Commonwealth's position as the employer but is not required to follow their Bargaining Policy.
"They are of course also informed by our position on behalf of CPSU members.
"The FWC must take into account a range of factors when deciding which terms to include in a workplace determination, including: the merits of each proposal; the interests of employees and the employer; the public interest; and the conduct of bargaining representatives."
The move to arbitration also holds out the prospect of back pay, subject to a blanket ban in the public service since Eric Abetz's days as minister in charge.
The two sides in the Immigration dispute will now go into a mandated 21–day period of talks to establish what common ground exists.
Announcing the decisions to his 13500 public servants, Immigration Department secretary Mike Pezzullo warned the arbitratin process might be a lengthy one.
"We know that arbitration is a lengthy process," Mr Pezzullo wrote.
"Based on past cases, it may take between 6-18 months and there is no guarantee as to the outcome.
"The department has been bargaining in good faith throughout the process — for this, and previous agreements — and remains firmly committed to achieving the best outcome possible for staff within budgetary and policy settings."
