INDIA will stage the world's biggest election in about six months but the political temperature is already rising.
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About 700 million Indian voters are due to go to the polls in May, but a surge in social unrest is likely in the meantime.
A string of city bombings, a surprising burst of conflict between Hindus and Muslims in the troubled region of Jammu and Kashmir, and a wave of anti-Christian violence through the east and south have the country bracing for more strife.
Paradoxically, this pre-poll turmoil coincides with unprecedented international recognition for India. Last month the 45-nation Nuclear Suppliers Group, which controls nuclear commerce, allowed India to join US, China, Russia, France and Britain as the only nuclear weapon states with permission to trade in nuclear fuel and technology. Some claim the deal has endorsed India as the world's "sixth power".
When the Foreign Affairs Minister, Stephen Smith, was in New Delhi last week he told the Herald the supplier group decision had "crystallised the emergence of India". But it can be a volatile superpower, especially when an election is in the offing.
The prelude to Indian elections is routinely marked by unrest as politicians and activists pander to religious prejudice and economic disadvantage to win votes.
This time the political climate is ripe for political forces to exploit India's deep-rooted religious divisions and stark economic inequality.
The centre-left ruling coalition, led by the Congress Party, is under pressure after electoral setbacks. The main opposition grouping, led by the right-wing Hindu Bharatiya Janata Party, is desperate to win back government after a surprise defeat in 2004.
The Hindu party stands to benefit from conflicts that pit India's Hindu majority against Muslim and Christian minorities. Hindus make up more than 80 per cent of the population compared with about 13 per cent for Muslims and 2.5 per cent for Christians.
Anti-Christian violence has erupted since the murder of a well-known Hindu sadhu in the poor eastern state of Orissa on August 23. Hindus blamed Christians for the killing and revenge attacks followed. About 40 people have been killed and tens of thousands forced into refugee camps and jungle hideouts. Hundreds of churches have been damaged or destroyed and more than a thousand houses set on fire.
Dr Sajan George, the president of the Global Council of Indian Christians, says the attacks on Christians by "saffron stormtroopers" are part of an intentional political campaign.
"The main reason for all the violations at this juncture is clearly that the BJP has its eyes on the forthcoming elections," he said.
Dr Niranjan Sahoo, a political analyst at a New Delhi think tank, the Observer Research Foundation, says it is common for religious conflict to be orchestrated to win blocks of votes from one community or another. These are called "vote banks" in India.
The anti-Christian violence in eastern and southern India coincides with rising tension between Muslims and Hindus in the disputed province of Kashmir in the far north of the country.
A deadly bomb attack on New Delhi a week ago was another manifestation of the violence gripping India. Indian Mujahideen, the group claiming responsibility for the attack that killed more than 20 people, said it was in retaliation for the victimisation of Muslims in Kashmir. It was the fourth time in as many months that a large Indian city has been hit by a serial bomb attack.
The disparity between rich and poor - a constant political challenge for India's leaders - is likely to add to the pre-poll turbulence.
Mahesh Rangarajan, a political analyst from Delhi University, believes inequality is a bigger challenge than communal tension. "I see in the next six months more of a build-up of economic discontent," he said. "There are a huge number of people here who are just not sharing the wedding cake."
As if to underscore this, the World Bank last month revised upwards its estimate of very poor people in India to 456 million, or 42 per cent of the population. About three-quarters of Indians - about 800 million people - live on less than $US2 ($2.50) a day.
Managing the expectations of so many poor villagers is a daunting political test. "No country of this size and scope has ever industrialised through the route of democracy - ever," Dr Rangarajan says. "It's going to be a very difficult process." Police kill suspects
NEW DELHI: Indian police battled suspected Islamic militants holed up in a house in the country's capital yesterday, killing two and arresting one before two others escaped, police said. The gun battle put New Delhi back on edge, days after five co-ordinated bombings killed more than 20 people in the city's markets. Two policemen were wounded in yesterday's fighting.
Associated Press
