Change has come

Few presidents, with the exception of Franklin Roosevelt and perhaps Abraham Lincoln, Mr Obama's political idol, have faced such testing times so early in their terms. For Roosevelt it was the Depression, for Lincoln it was a civil war. For Mr Obama it is both the economy and war.

It is no wonder that he has been trying to hose down expectations of what he can achieve and to instead stress the need for American to change from a "me first" culture to one where each person takes responsibility for their actions.

Yet these troubled times could also be a blessing. The economic crisis that will dominate Mr Obama's first 100 days as President, and beyond, will provide him with an unprecedented opportunity to push through large portions of his ambitious and contentious agenda.

Congress, which holds the purse strings in the US system, appears more ready than at any time since the Great Depression to countenance spending on a massive scale - and with the urgency of a nation facing a global crisis.

Economists from both sides of the political divide who would normally demand much greater fiscal rectitude, have urged the President to think boldly and spend big - at least on projects that can be realised in the next 18 months.

Mr Obama wants to do more than simply inject stimulus into the economy. If possible he wants to make a start on remaking America and to shift the pendulum back toward an era where the collective good takes precedence over personal enrichment.

But that will mean a sharp shift from the orthodoxy of the past three decades, summed up by Ronald Reagan's inaugural speech punchline: "In this crisis, government is not the solution to our problem; government is the problem."

The first test for Mr Obama will be whether he can convince the Senate to embrace a greater role for government.

Congress has been working on a mammoth stimulus bill, costing $US825 billion or more, to treat

the ailing economy, which is now ready to be debated. Mr Obama's transition staff have been integrally involved in crafting the bill, using it as a vehicle for an array of priorities, including addressing climate change and building a new green industry, fixing America's education system and dealing with the 47 million who are without health insurance.

In practical terms the programs will be less lofty. Projects need to be realised in 18 months to have an impact on the economy. For example, he's talked about retrofitting federal office buildings to make them energy-efficient, giving subsidies to companies that create environmentally sustainable jobs; rebuilding schools in poor neighbourhoods and giving them state-of-the-art technologies like smart boards; extending the reach of broadband to rural communities, and putting health records online as a first step to cutting costs and covering the uninsured.

But a hallmark of the first 100 days of the Obama Administration is likely to be these small steps toward a much grander goal.

It will also be a test of Mr Obama's ability to craft the new type of politics he talked about throughout the campaign, one free of partisan rancour, where good ideas come from both sides of the aisle.

The Republicans have the numbers in the Senate to hold up a bill by filibustering it, even though the Democrats will likely have 59 out of 100 votes. (One seat is still undecided.)

Mr Obama has already made a peace offering - he has included extensive tax cuts for both business and individuals - now it remains to be seen whether he can craft a consensus.

The Senate has so far indicated a new openness, even before Mr Obama became President. It cleared the way for the second tranche of the $US700 billion allocated to stabilise the banking and financial system.

But the co-operation of the Senate may owe more to fear than goodwill. There are signs that Mr Obama is facing a second round of problems within the banking sector, evidenced by Bank of America and Citibank applying for additional loans.

He is also likely to face a second request for more taxpayer funds from the car industry within weeks. General Motors has signalled it has enough only until March.

If the economic maelstrom was not enough, Mr Obama faces a crisis in the Middle East. He and George Bush came to an understanding which has allowed the new President to progress his domestic agenda during the transition period, while Mr Bush continued to be the voice of America on international affairs.

Mr Obama will be under intense pressure to make clear his stance on Gaza - and demonstrate he truly means what he says on a more aggressive form of diplomacy - not just at home but from the Arab world as well. It is likely he will announce plans to send an envoy to the Middle East within the first days and follow up with a timetable for more comprehensive peace talks.

Then there are likely to be some highly symbolic announcements, like the widely expected directive to close the detention facility at Guantanamo Bay. This decision, which would send a strong signal to Mr Obama's most ardent supporters that change is in the air, is the easy part. The harder task is relocating the 245 prisoners who remain, given that evidence collected may well be tainted by interrogation techniques and inadmissible in the US court system.

Expectations will be high, yet achieving measurable results will be tough and this is Mr Obama's single biggest danger.

Then there are the more intractable problems he faces. The NATO nations are scheduled to meet in April, so it is possible he will have an early win in boosting troop numbers.

Withdrawal from Iraq, however, will take careful planning to achieve what Mr Obama promised: a responsible pull-out.

Yet his most ardent supporters will be wanting urgent results, and groups like moveon.org, with 5 million members, will be pushing for early action.

Mr Obama has also promised comprehensive health care reform in his first term, a monumental task that will have America's foremost lobbyists for the pharmaceutical and private insurance industry rallying to defend their clients' interests. It's a task he needs to start early, if he is to have any hope of finishing within his time-frame.

Then there are the more intractable problems like unfunded liabilities for social security and Medicare, a system that provides health care for the over 65s. Both funds are facing unfunded liabilities as members of the baby boomer generation reach retirement age and their health deteriorates.

Mr Obama has said now is the time to deal with these problems, rather than leave it for another generation to deal with.