After watching his supposed "good thing" Karuta Queen get beaten in last year's Black Opal Stakes, Neville Layt knows nothing is certain in racing.
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But the Queanbeyan trainer believes he can go one better with Red Excitement next month after the colt's impressive win in the Lightning Ridge 2YO Plate (1000 metres) at Thoroughbred Park yesterday.
The $7.20 elect jumped from barrier 13 and found cover towards the back of the field, before unleashing a strong wide run down the straight to book his place in Canberra's richest race on March 11.
The 1.3-length win over Anthony Cummings runner Diamond Player has Layt convinced he can atone for the disappointment of last year.
Having won the Magic Millions just two months before, Karuta Queen was sent out a $1.20 favourite but was upstaged by Gratz Vella's You're Canny in a massive boilover.
"I thought he [Red Excitement] was a good thing and he'll improve on that for the 1200 in the Black Opal, and he'll just about win that, too," Layt said. ?
Yesterday was Red Excitement's fourth career run, including a first-up sixth in the Breeders Plate at Randwick in October.
"He's raced in good company in Melbourne and Randwick and he's come on in leaps and bounds with his work," Layt said. "I just said to [jockey] Kevin [Sweeney] 'just give him a soft run in transit, and he'll do the rest down the straight'."
Layt initially offered the ride to Tommy Berry, but Karuta Queen's regular jockey opted to get aboard David Payne runner Risky Blonde, which finished third.
Layt indicated afterwards Sweeney may retain the ride on Red Excitement for the Black Opal.
Berry has already been booked to ride Gai Waterhouse filly Lator Gator in the $250,000 feature.
"I don't know just yet, but I'd say there's every chance Sweeney will ride him again," Layt said.
That will be music to Sweeney's ears, as the Gungahlin hoop believes Red Excitement is peaking just in time for the Black Opal.
"It [1200m] is right down his alley at this stage of his prep," Sweeney said. "He usually goes forward but he just couldn't go the pace today, and I managed to go back with good cover. Once he gets out to the 1400m or the mile I think you'll be seeing a real top horse. It's up to the owners, but I want to be on him [in the Black Opal] for sure."
Red Excitement may be headed for a rematch with Diamond Player, with the filly's jockey Blake Shinn declaring her run a good lead-up to the Black Opal.
"She just had a tough run from the barrier, but it was a courageous run and she went great heading towards the Opal," he said. "I'm not sure whether she'll get a run, but judging on that she's definitely worth a go for sure."