Stay away: Guy fears infection from toxic feds

But Victorian Liberal leader Matthew Guy had little interest in making the journey on Monday morning, even though he would have received a prime-ministerial welcome from Scott Morrison at the other end.

As campaigning for next month's state election began in earnest, even the 170-odd clicks between the two men was a little close for Guy, who doesn't want anything to do with the Prime Minister's many political problems.

The state Liberals reckon their federal colleagues are electoral poison after August’s bloodbath in Canberra that saw the end of Malcolm Turnbull, a prime minister who was relatively well regarded here in "progressive" Victoria.

Guy’s position in the latest polls is not good, with a couple of the most recent surveys putting his primary vote about 39 per cent, a good six points off the 45 per cent he needs to win next month.

But Morrison’s polling is diabolical, with his Coalition scoring just 36 per cent of the national primary vote in Monday’s Newspoll.

That figure is slightly worse here in Victoria, at 35 per cent. Could be even less than that by now.

For the federal Liberals, too, 45 per cent of the national primary vote is the magic number that gets them across the line in most elections, to put the Prime Minister’s position in context.

Morrison was nowhere to be seen at the Liberals’ campaign launch on Sunday. He said he had a better offer: Prince Harry, Meghan and the Invictus Games in Sydney.

Fair enough. Matthew is just a subject, not a royal.

But if Guy was unbackable favourite to sweep Daniel Andrews and Labor from office next month, you have to wonder if Morrison might have found the time on Sunday, such is the need to find a winner for the Liberal cause right now.

And where were the federal frontbenchers whose electorates are just down the road from the launch? Kelly O’Dwyer, Greg Hunt, Alan Tudge?

Treasurer Josh Frydenberg was there at the Centre in Ivanhoe to show support, but he kept his gob firmly shut.

All of this supports the verdict one Victorian Liberal passed on the electoral appeal of federal colleagues quite recently. “They’re f---ing toxic”.

It’s quite possible that Scott Morrison will be seen again in these parts between now and November 24, but it will be more likely about trying to save his own federal marginal seats in Victoria (which are mostly toast according to the polls) than doing Matthew Guy any favours.

If the latest polls are right, then Morrison has more ground to make up on his opponent Bill Shorten than Guy is giving away to Andrews.

But Morrison has up to six-and-a-half months in which to try to cover that distance while Guy has less than four weeks.

Morrison needs to motor, and he knows it, but it’s Guy who really needs to floor it.