The Reserve Bank agrees with the head of Treasury Steven Kennedy that the end of the JobKeeper wage subsidy in the next few days will likely see a temporary pause in the unemployment rate's decline.
Dr Kennedy told senators in Canberra earlier on Wednesday that he expects a "bump" in the unemployment rate as JobKeeper ends.
He expects between 100,000 to 150,000 people receiving the JobKeeper subsidy will lose employment.
Even so, he predicts the unemployment rate will continue to fall across the course of this year and into the following years.
"We expect the unemployment rate to have peaked and will continue that downward trajectory even if there is a bump or two in the next month or so," Dr Kennedy told a Senate estimates hearing in Canberra on Wednesday.
The jobless rate dropped to 5.8 per cent in February after steadily declining from a 22-year peak of 7.5 per cent during the depths of last year's recession.
RBA deputy governor Guy Debelle told the hearing during its evening session the central bank's assessment is pretty much the same as Treasury's reckoning in terms of job losses post-JobKeeper.
However, he said it depends how strongly jobs growth performs elsewhere in the economy.
"Essentially it has been pretty strong the last few months, the question is will it be strong enough to offset those job losses from JobKeeper," Dr Debelle said.
"That is one of the reasons, I think, it's not necessarily going to be a straight line down from here in terms of the unemployment rate."
There were around 1.1 million employees still reliant on the JobKeeper subsidy at the end of January, smaller than the 1.3 million Treasury had predicted in the mid-year budget review released in December.
Dr Kennedy said JobKeeper played a crucial role in supporting the economy and driving the recovery.
"In our view it is appropriate for the program to end as other support measures take effect and to allow the economy to continue adjusting," he told a Senate estimates hearing on Wednesday.
"We believe that in the order of 100,000 to 150,000 JobKeeper recipients may lose employment at the completion of the program, though there is a wide band of uncertainty around this estimate."
Shadow treasurer Jim Chalmers says small businesses and workers have been warning the government for months that cutting JobKeeper will cut jobs, but those pleas have fallen on deaf ears.
"If the Morrison government hadn't wasted hundreds of millions of dollars on companies which didn't need JobKeeper, there'd be more room to support those small businesses and workers which still do," Dr Chalmers told AAP.
Since JobKeeper was first introduced in April, more than 2.7 million employees and about 680,000 business have left the scheme, representing a 72 per cent reduction.
Australian Taxation Office data also shows that all industries have seen a significant decrease in the number of employees covered by JobKeeper, including a 83 per cent fall in retail and a 69 per cent drop in accommodation and food services.
Treasurer Josh Frydenberg said the final JobKeeper numbers for January confirm that Australia's economic recovery is broad-based across all states, regions and industries.
"We know that some families and businesses are still doing it tough and our message is that the Morrison government continues to have your back," Mr Frydenberg said.
He said the government's economic recovery plan would continue to provide support through targeted measures as well as tax cuts, business incentives and a record investment in skills and training and infrastructure.
One of those supports, the $4 billion JobMaker hiring credit program, was described by Labor Senator Katy Gallagher as a "flop".
When it was first announced, it was expected to support 450,000 young people into work, but so far only 600 places have been filled.
Finance Minister Simon Birmingham defended the initiative, saying it is a very new program but conceded the take-up has not been at levels anticipated in its early stages.
He said given strong employment and safeguards around the program, businesses may be reluctant to use it.
"Stronger employment outcomes would reduce the likely demand for such a program but it doesn't negate it altogether," Senator Birmingham said.
The government is currently looking at the settings of the program.
Australian Associated Press