HEAT AND HEALTH:
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* More humans and wildlife will die from heat with Australia is at risk of dangerous, even intolerable conditions
* Deaths from heat in Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane projected to rise from 142 per year recently, to 600 per year over coming decades under a high emissions scenario
* Number of days per year with temperatures over 35C to increase 80-350 per cent by 2090 under high emissions. Even if emissions are cut effectively the figure will still be 25-80 per cent
* The frequency of heatwaves will increase 85 per cent with warming 1.5C and 2C
* Sydney and Melbourne could reach temperatures of up to 50C with global warming of 2C
DISASTER PROJECTIONS:
* More droughts and extreme fire weather are projected in southern and eastern Australia
* Australia could have up to 70 per cent more more fire weather days by 2050 in some regions
* More intense rainfall that could cause floods is expected with fewer tropical cyclones, but more of them severe
ECOSYSTEMS:
* Climate change to become an increasingly dominant stress on biodiversity from 2030
* Some ecosystems will experience irreversible changes
* Some species will become extinct, others will suffer major population declines
THE GREAT BARRIER REEF:
* The reef is at very high risk of ongoing, possibly irreversible damage
* Bleaching events that kill corals could occur twice per decade from 2035, and every year after 2044 under high emissions
* Adaptation efforts, such as coral restoration after marine heatwaves, may slow impacts but only in small, discreet parts of the reef
* Coral damage expected to rise along with projected increases in cyclone intensity and other extreme weather events
* If warming is limited to 1.5C the world will still lose 70 to 90 per cent of warm water coral reefs, but 99 per cent will vanish with 2C of warming
SNOW AND SKIING:
* The skiing industry is threatened by climate change
* Annual maximum snow depth over Australia, particularly over the Australian Alps, will decrease 15 per cent 2030 and 60 per cent by 2070 under a high emissions scenario
* Victoria's ski season could be 65 to 90 per cent shorter by the end of the century if emissions are high
* Snow-making machines being used to compensate for reduced snow won't be effective within about 30 years due to higher temperatures and less available water
AGRICULTURE:
* A quarter of all Australians projected to live with water scarcity by 2050, compared with about eight per cent now
* The Murray-Darling basin will see a 20 per cent decline in average annual runoff with warming of 2.2C
* Wheat yields are projected to fall by 30 per cent in south west Australia and 15 per cent in south Australia by 2050
* Rice production will also be hit with projected yield losses ranging from 53 to 83 per cent due to heat stress at important growth stages
* Extreme heat and drier conditions will increase the risk for agriculture and livestock across south western, southern and eastern Australia, including the Murray-Darling basin
* Accumulated losses in productivity due to climate change, across agriculture, manufacturing and service sectors could exceed four trillion Australian dollars by 2100 under high emissions
SOURCE: IPCC Working Group II report, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
Australian Associated Press
