The government expects a return to pre-pandemic migration levels this year but the projections may be too bullish given the uncertain global environment.
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A new report from the Centre for Population is predicting a full recovery in migration numbers this year of about 235,000 people per year on average.
But Australian National University demographer Liz Allen said the migration assumptions were quite optimistic and she was not confident migration would rebound to pre-pandemic levels as quickly as the forecasts suggested.
"Because there's a lot outside of the government's control - logistics when it comes to getting on a plane, the logistics of being able to afford the price of a plane ticket, and so on," Dr Allen told ABC Radio.
The final report, released on Friday, revealed the lasting effects of the pandemic on the population as an effective pause on migration accelerated the ageing trend.
As well as longer life expectancies and declining fertility rates, Australia is experiencing a wave of baby boomers entering retirement.
The ageing population is expected to weigh on the economy and pose budgetary challenges as a shrinking tax base contrasts with a growing need for healthcare and other government services.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said the population report highlighted the demographic challenges ahead, including the need to equip the workforce to support an ageing population.
"We need to get the workforce issues right because we want to get our workforce in as good condition as it can be - the right size, the right level of skills and training people for good, secure, well-paid jobs - so that people are making a contribution to looking after people in the later stages of life," he told ABC Radio.
The government has been attempting to tackle the workforce challenge on multiple fronts, including allowing parents to work more, training Australians to fill skills gaps and improving the migration program.
Deputy opposition leader Sussan Ley agreed skilling Australian workers and bringing in skilled migrants were central to solving Australia's workforce woes.
But she said the government had failed to get the policy settings right.
"We're still hearing the cries from small businesses that they can't get the workforce they need to stay open seven days a week, to stay open if they are a hospitality business, to provide services in hotels, or in the facilities and businesses around our CBDs and indeed across Australia," she told reporters on Friday.
She said the labour shortage problem required careful planning and encouraged policies that attracted people to rural and regional areas.
"You need to know where the choke points are, where the workforce is needed and how we can best support businesses, including manufacturing businesses, because so much of our manufacturing takes place away from the capital cities."
Australian Associated Press
