Turbulence is about to get a lot worse.
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New research shows hard to detect clean-air turbulence has increased as the climate warms and is predicted to become more frequent.
A bumpier ride could lead to high operating costs, increased insurance premiums and a more expensive plane ticket for the consumer, experts say.
Injuries, wear-and-tear
Meteorologist Mark Prosser, the lead researcher of the University of Reading study, said turbulence could be dangerous.
"Airlines will need to start thinking about how they will manage the increased turbulence, as it costs the industry $150 to $500 million annually in the United States alone," Mr Prosser said.
"Every additional minute spent travelling through turbulence increases wear-and-tear on the aircraft, as well as the risk of injuries to passengers and flight attendants."
The study found severe clean-air turbulence has increased by 55 per cent since 1979 in the North Atlantic ocean, a busy flight region.
Clean-air turbulence refers to turbulent air currents in cloudless conditions that cannot be detected or predicted, making them particularly hazardous for aircraft.
Warmer air from carbon dioxide emissions is increasing windshear in jet streams, which refers to a change in wind velocity, or direction that can suddenly change the speed and lift of a plane.
More bumps, more storms, more fuel
A less smooth flight path and the predicted wear and tear on the plane could lead to higher operating costs, experts say.
University of Sydney chair in transport and supply chain management Professor Rico Merkert said airlines often used jet streams to maximise efficiency and reduce flight times but increased turbulence could change that.
"One thing that could happen is if those turbulences are becoming more frequent and a lot more severe and happening in those jet streams, then the airlines may no longer be able to use those because it might become too dangerous or too uncomfortable for the passengers," he said.
"So that is an effect that would have implications on the fuel use and fuel cost of airlines, so their operating costs would go up."
Higher operating costs would be felt by the consumer if airfare prices soar.
"Insurance companies might come in and say that given that you have much more frequent and more severe risk especially flying over oceans, then we're going to increase the premiums for the insurance of the aircraft.
"As a result they will pass on those costs to passengers with higher prices," Professor Merkert said.
Turbulence a trigger for nervous flyers
Turbulence, while usually safe, was unpleasant to fly through.
A spokesperson for the Flight Attendants Association of Australia said turbulence was challenging for nervous flyers but flight crew were equipped to handle the situation.
"Any form of turbulence is concerning for a nervous flier and can set them off, they could go into panic attacks," the spokesperson said.
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"The cabin crew are there primarily for the safety of passengers and crew on the aircraft. They are also there to make sure that they can reassure the passengers and that empathy is always there, because that's what cabin crew are hired for."
From 2009 to 2021, there were 30 passengers and 116 crew members seriously injured because of turbulence from the millions of people who fly every year, according to aviation administration data.
While the study found the North Atlantic flight route experienced the largest increases in turbulence, other busy flight routes over the United States, Europe, the Middle East and the South Atlantic also saw significant increases.
"We should be investing in improved turbulence forecasting and detection systems to prevent the rougher air from translating into bumpier flights in the coming decades," co-author of the study Paul Williams said.
