Borrowers on red alert as inflation fight rakes economy

On the frontline are borrowers, taxpayers, wage earners and the cohort of unemployed that is expected to expand as the Reserve Bank's aggressive interest rate hikes weigh on the economy.

Rich Insight economist Chris Richardson said there was a large and "rightly grumpy" group that met three of those four criteria: mortgage holders earning a wage and paying taxes.

This group is vulnerable on multiple fronts. They are seeing inflation outrun pay rises, more income captured by tax bracket creep and steep rises in mortgage repayments as interest rates rise.

"In terms of your cameos, it's a young couple who bought during the pandemic on a two per cent fixed rate that's set to roll over onto something vastly more expensive, whether it's fixed or variable, and their jobs are potentially at risk as the economy slows," he told AAP.

Younger age groups, with the exception of those still living with their parents, have also been reining in their spending more than older generations.

A report released by CommBank iQ last month showed Australians aged 25 to 29 tightened their belts more than any other group between January and March.

Renters, who are enduring runaway prices due to a mismatch between housing supply and demand, were also found to be spending less than mortgage holders and outright home owners.

Mr Richardson said there was a small group of mostly older households with money in the bank that were now earning interest on their savings for the first time in years.

However, he said that in inflation-adjusted terms their savings were still shrinking because interest rates still trailed the growth of consumer prices.

The independent economist also said there was more financial pain to come, especially for borrowers.

About 880,000 mortgage holders will roll off their cheap fixed mortgage rates this year, with Canstar analysis indicating repayments are set to lift by as much as 63 per cent.

Plus, there could be further tightening in the coming months.

Canstar group executive Steve Mickenbecker said a further 50 basis points of hikes, which is not out of the question, would leave recent home buyers in a "diabolical" position.

Under these conditions, a typical dual-income couple borrowing at capacity to buy at the median house price in Sydney before rates started going up, would be forking out 50 per cent of their before-tax income on repayments.

"If 30 per cent is judged to be mortgage stress, 50 per cent is stress piled on top of stress," he told AAP.

While he said not everyone was prepared to pay $1.4 million for a middle-of-the-road home in Sydney, he said plenty of people were aspirational and had borrowed as much as possible.

"If you look at it generationally, the people who are most likely to borrow right up to their capacity are first home buyers."

While Sydney and Melbourne mortgage holders were likely under the most stress due to higher prices in those cities, Mr Mickenbecker said those that bought at capacity in regional areas were likely to still be in financial stress.

Australian Associated Press