Canberra has for some time been bucking the national plunge in house prices, as confirmed by new data out this week, showing the capital's median house value rose 3.6 per cent in the past year.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
That compared to a fall nationally on the same measure of 4.8 per cent - dragged down mostly by the pricking of the house price balloon in Sydney and Melbourne, down 10 and 9.1 per cent respectively.
In the capital, the CoreLogic data showed apartment values were also up 2.2 per cent in the past year, making for an overall 3.3 per cent increase in median property values.
It is just the latest sign that the inflated property price boom of recent years, fuelled by poor lending practices, federal tax settings combined with record-level household debt, is over.
Despite signs of a slowdown in the final quarter of last year, and building approval data suggesting the capital's construction boom will begin slowing in 2019, Canberra keeps chugging away with modest year on year value growth.
It's good news for Canberra's homeowners, but with record-low vacancy rates and near-stagnant growth in public and affordable housing; renters, particularly those on low incomes, remain under pressure.
Beyond the lack of affordable housing nationally, financial mechanisms such as tighter lending practices are taking effect, with fewer investor loans being dished out, and the banks slowly raising interest rates despite the frozen cash rate.
It's a welcome sign for Prime Minister Scott Morrison, if not of his government's doing, though he has warned Labor's plans to cut negative gearing and the capital gains tax discounts could cause a full-blown market crash - the campaign unofficially underway.
That's concerning for any homeowner, if not entirely true, given Labor's plans would not affect any existing investors using negative gearing, while the Coalition's first home owner savings scheme has helped some people save for a deposit quicker.
As the market cools, interest rates may rise some time in the next year, though the Reserve Bank has been conservative and remains relatively upbeat, if concerned about rising household debt and a lack of wages growth among other things.
One of the biggest concerns are the staggering levels of household debt Australians have come to take on, at 189 per cent of income, with little thought to the potential financial consequences.
Morgan Stanley warned late last year Australia had the world's highest levels of household debt and with just 1 per cent of household income going into savings, there was a potential loss of $700 billion of personal wealth in the works.
It sounds unrealistic, but the forecasts for a 10-15 per cent fall nationally in house prices combined with 20 per cent debt/asset gearing levels do not sound so far fetched given the downturn already underway.
Some Canberrans, depending on their exposures, may not feel the full brunt of it if population growth continues at its record rate, but none will be immune to the wider effects of the downturn.
Home owners with high incomes may have to adjust their spending patterns, but for the thousands on or below the bread line, there is no buffer and neither federal Labor or the Coalition plan to increase benefits for the most needy.
Perhaps an increase in concessions in the next ACT budget may be on the cards?