A day to reflect on our dangerous times

The address at the Dawn Service at the Australian War Memorial is to be given by Vice-Admiral David Johnston who will become the Chief of the Defence Force in July.

On Friday, he explained his theme: "On Anzac Day, the Dawn Service is an opportunity for all of us to reflect on the service and sacrifice of the men and women who have served Australia, and the families who support them."

Vice-Admiral Johnston is an impressive and thoughtful man whose career has been in war zones but also at headquarters, rethinking and redirecting Australia's military capabilities as the world gets more dangerous. He has been in command on the bridge of warships but also behind a desk planning strategy.

Both roles are of the utmost importance, but arguably the planning role really does determine the fate of this nation.

Technology is advancing at great speed and there seems no doubt that any conflict will be won by the power which has the superior technology.

It was probably ever thus: iron-clad ships, machine guns, tanks, aircraft and finally the atomic bomb all transformed the ability to win war. The side with the advanced technology triumphed.

This Anzac Day should be even more thoughtful than previous ones. Danger seems to be coming closer to our country which once seemed safe because of distance.

In and around Israel, there is war which threatens to explode into a true regional conflict. The massacre by Hamas of Israeli citizens on October 7 was followed by massive retaliation by the Israel Defense Forces. Israel and Iran trade missiles and drones.

And in our own region, China looms ever larger.

The government's latest strategic review said that China had made the biggest military buildup of any country since 1945. Defence Minister Richard Marles has echoed the claim.

A group of experts on security and the international situation reckoned that an invasion of Taiwan could happen as early as 2026, and that would surely trigger war.

For all these reasons, Anzac Day should display its customary solemnity but also be a chance for thought about the future. It should feel like a ceremony where war is not a distant memory of the sacrifice of others but a consideration of a future where we all may face sacrifice.

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For the first time since before the pandemic, the Anzac Day parade of veterans will resemble its old self. The parade ground has been rebuilt and will be used.

The cranes and the excavators are still there at the War Memorial but it is starting to look like it might when the work is finished in 2028.

There have been bumps on the way. A budget of $500 million became $550 million. Two weeks ago, the National Audit Office criticised the Memorial for not keeping ministers informed about some decisions.

But a longer-running criticism has been that the Memorial glorifies war by giving too much prominence to the weapons of war. Big planes and tanks may be thrilling to look at, runs the argument, but they do not convey the horror of what they can do.

The people who run the Australian War Memorial need to reflect on that as they work out how to fill their expanded galleries.

And we all need to reflect on the difficult times ahead. It is hard to imagine tensions easing, certainly in this part of the world.