Canberrans who own a house will look with glee at predictions the national capital's property market is poised to thrive despite the slowdowns happening interstate.
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A new report from consultants BIS Oxford Economics painted a happy picture on Monday for many in the ACT, saying that to own a house in Canberra is to expect some of the strongest gains in value next year among capital cities.
It hasn't seen quite the warping levels of growth that have shut people from the Sydney and Melbourne markets, despite performing solidly. Nor has this success come without problems.
"Affordability" is the hero of the ACT's property market, the consultants say, and the territory has its high incomes to thank for the next few years of growth. Prices will stay within reach of the city's well-paid, and the market will hum along accordingly while sputtering in Sydney and Melbourne.
The word "affordability" might seem an odd choice for a city where the term has become somewhat charged. Canberra has yet to resolve questions about access to housing, and the ACT is waiting for its government to release a strategy that will try to answer them.
Whether Canberra is a truly affordable city to buy a home depends on the figures you look at. Data tells a muddled story. Core Logic says Canberrans in 2017 paid among the lowest percentages of income servicing their mortgage. Painting another picture, the Housing Industry Association in April said Canberra was behind only Sydney and Melbourne as the least affordable - although it was a long way behind them and still more affordable than the average of all the capital cities.
If wage rises in the ACT stay low - as they likely will, considering the federal government's continued cap on pay growth - then Canberrans entering the market may find themselves spending a greater percentage of their incomes servicing their mortgages.
Canberra is a decidedly unaffordable city to buy - or rent - for the almost 35,000 people identified as living below the poverty line. Community service provider Anglicare earlier this year found there were no rental properties within the budget of low-income earners, except households earning a minium wage and on family benefits, and those on the aged pension.
The ACT government has merely tipped its hat at the problem with contracts for the two remaining largest blocks of land on Northbourne Avenue to be sold off under the urban renewal program including a condition that prospective bidders be "encouraged" to include affordable housing. It appears a token gesture unlikely to bring more homes for low-income people.
For a pressing issue, there appears a lack of urgency to solve it.
Without a strategy, the city is waiting for evidence of a demonstrated and comprehensive commitment to solving the housing affordability question in Canberra. The government has left itself open to criticism - from experts, advocates, and from former ACT chief minister Jon Stanhope, who has slammed the Labor-Greens government for "abandoning" his government's affordable housing initiatives.
Rising house prices might point to much that is healthy about Canberra's economy. It shouldn't veil a problem that could easily go ignored, if enough people are willing to let it slide.
