The escalating tit-fot-tat between India and Pakistan bears the signs of past conflicts that have spiralled out of control. In so many wars, years of mass casualties begin with a chain reaction of deadly events powered by similar cycles of grievance and retaliation.
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As the world watches on, much is out of its hands as it falls to Imran Khan, for Pakistan, and Narendra Modi, for India, to exercise restraint, keep good counsel and resist any pushes from hotter heads.
The new geopolitics in the age of Trumpist US foreign policy and the rise of China now exert influence on the long-fractured relationship between India and Pakistan.
The Americans have moved their allegiances more towards India as a regional counterbalance to the Middle Kingdom. In turn, the Chinese are growing supporters of Pakistan, giving the country an alternative to the world's most powerful democracy and removing weight from America's words.
All combine to rewrite, in some way, the rules of the region. The conflict between India and Pakistan is a major test of their ability to prevent and defuse war. A warning sign is that Pakistan has said the lack of American condemnation of India's actions is "construed and understood as an endorsement of the Indian position, and that is what emboldened them even more".
In all the fog, the facts of the conflict are unclear but the terrorist attack by a Pakistan-based militant group killing 40 Indian paramilitaries in a Kashmir suicide-bombing two weeks ago is the starting point.
The backdrop of looming Indian elections, and a new Pakistani prime minister, add some domestic political charge to the volatile situation.
President Donald Trump's showbiz-style pageantry with North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un appeared at first a sideshow to the mounting conflict on Thursday, although even the Hanoi talks looked to have collapsed by the evening.
The meeting, preceded by questions about the US' progress in achieving North Korean denuclearisation, revealed again a penchant for show that distracts President Trump from potent risks to world stability.
One of them is the US' declining role as a model actor on the world stage. President Trump has withdrawn from a nuclear accord with Iran and is exiting one with Russia, moves that threaten more arms races in unstable regions. India and Pakistan have lost some incentive to curb their arsenals and defang their conflicts of devastating nuclear potential.
Despite all that remains outside their control, the powers watching the conflict should prepare to exert their influence to avoid an escalation. It's time for a US President enamoured of his self-projected peacemaker image to actually make some peace. Middle- and larger powers, including Australia, have the ability to coordinate, and channel India and Pakistan into a resolution. China could seize on the situation as a chance to show it can help mediate tensions responsibly.
For all of its historic and local causes, the conflict has global overtones that are within the control of countries far away from Kashmir. They should use any levers within grasp, fast.
