As the citizenship crisis engulfing Canberra enters a second phase, it's clear that Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull hopes to neutralise the threat it poses to his government with a quick-fix disclosure regime.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
His plan is apparently to use a public register of MPs' citizenship information to weed out the dual nationals in the 45th parliament, have them referred to the High Court and hope that the Coalition will win any by-elections for those with foreign citizenship.
Whether it works depends on a number of things that in some cases, will possibly not go Mr Turnbull's way, and in others, will likely fall against him. First, he will hope that Coalition MPs in endangered seats do not turn out to have dual citizenship by virtue of their previously undisclosed foreign-born parents or grandparents. The saga has thrown up enough surprises that the scenario shouldn't be dismissed.
Second, the Prime Minister's plan envisages that the threat of reputational or political 'penalties' will be enough to coax parliamentarians into disclosing information that could render them a dual citizen. This is likely, but can't be taken for granted, considering the embarrassment in store for many who would have spent recent months saying otherwise. In any case, the legitimacy of the parliament should not be staked so much on good will, and there should be some legal edge to calls for MPs to disclose their information.
Finally, the disclosure regime is intended to bring an end to the crisis but actually means that High Court decisions and any resulting by-elections won't likely be settled until next year, meaning the saga threatens to commandeer the parliamentary agenda well into 2018. Even after any by-elections, there's no guarantee against further revelations.
In short, Mr Turnbull's plan is the more painful, draw-out method to clear the chambers of dual citizens. Questions over the status of MPs will continue throughout the summer, eroding faith in the legitimacy of the parliament and casting doubt on the validity of any decision to pass or reject legislation until the public can be sure all dual nationals have resigned.
This raises the only tidy, decisive solution to the matter. An election, called as soon as possible, will give parliamentarians a chance to get their citizenship affairs in order, stand again and let voters decide while confident they're voting for someone eligible to run.
There are political reasons the government is resisting this. Its bad polling must give it shivers. But it shouldn't be so sure of its demise if a vote were held soon. Mr Turnbull risks looking self-interested and crisis-ridden if he avoids an early poll. He is getting as desperate as his disclosure regime makes him look. That also means the prime minister is approaching the point where he has little else left to lose.
