True to its election promise, the Barr government is now throwing everything at light rail stage 2, the project that proves stage 1 is not a one-trick pony but is indeed part of a plan to lay the tramline through the city.
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Given the enormous costs that are already sucking money from other projects, it remains to be seen how much of the citywide network will be built, but stage 2 to Woden is, at least so far, full steam ahead.
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In devising the route for stage 2, the government really had no choice but to avoid some of the circuitous and unrealistic suggestions for travel through suburbs of Deakin and Forrest, but it is considering a modest and quite sensible detour into Barton, past some key federal government offices and the Realm hotel precinct. It is also considering an extension at the end of the route to Canberra Hospital, but it is a fair bet that costs will preclude that in the wash up.
Because costs, you can be sure, will be considerable. The first route is costing $707 million to build, and $940 million all up (in today's dollars, or $1.8 billion nominal cost). The second leg is a similar distance, but doesn't have the simplicity of the first. The tramline must find its way over the lake, and while the ACT government believes it can use Commonwealth Avenue Bridge, the detailed studies are yet to be done and it remains possible that a new bridge will be needed, or substantial strengthening work must be done to the existing bridge.
The second stage must also have a substantial stretch of wire-free running, through the Parliamentary Triangle, which will add to costs. And it will also presumably require more roadworks, given there isn't an obvious central corridor to contain the line, as with Northbourne Avenue.
And while the ACT has had numerous levers at its disposal to maximise the money from land sales and unit development along the Northbourne corridor, it has fewer opportunities in the Parliamentary Triangle, which is national land, and on Adelaide Avenue, where the National Capital Authority already sent a clear message of its disapproval of major development when it effectively scotched the extension of Yarralumla in 2015.
We are yet to discover whether costs are feasible in the context of a seriously strained budget, and whether the cost-benefit analysis can find sufficient benefits to make the project politically feasible. But if it can vault those two hurdles and sign contracts for construction before the next election, Labor will likely have another winner, locking in its hold on the Woden-Weston seat. The third seat in Woden-Weston is held by the Greens and without it the Liberals do not have a realistic chance at government. For the voters of the south, the tram will be coming. And the significant drop in support for the Liberals in Gungahlin in 2016 is all the evidence you could need of the enthusiasm for light rail among those set to benefit.