"Don't take your foot off the brake too soon" is one of the most overworked phrases doing the rounds as the national cabinet, and state and territory governments, begin to ease social distancing restrictions.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
It refers to the need to keep sensible safeguards in place despite the success in bringing the virus under control.
This sentiment shouldn't overshadow another just as important in terms of helping families and individuals survive the crisis financially, and to letting Australia bounce back.
Governments "shouldn't take their foot off the economic stimulus accelerator too soon" either.
The Australian economy is broken. So is the global economy.
The Australian economy is broken. So is the global economy of which it is an important part. Containing the virus won't fix that on its own.
When the IMF released its latest economic outlook forecast in mid-April it described the shock to the global economy as the worst since the Great Depression.
"Downward revisions (of economic growth) are substantial, ranging from 3.5 percentage points in the case of Korea... to over nine percentage points in the case of Australia, Thailand and New Zealand, all hit by the global tourism slowdown, and, in the case of Australia, by lower commodity prices," IMF economists said.
The outlook is now, if anything, even worse. There are 3.48 million confirmed cases worldwide and 227,000 reported deaths. Large parts of the planet are still under severe restrictions.
The PM's initial assessment, that this would take up to six months to play out, is looking optimistic. So to are those pundits, including CommSec chief economist, Craig James, who canvassed the possibility a recession could be avoided.
This is the era of globalisation; the economy is hostage to what is happening elsewhere.
International travel won't resume on anything like its pre-COVID-19 scale until some time in 2021 at the earliest.
International tourists, and international students, won't be returning in significant numbers in 2020.
Given there was a strong push for economic stimulus even before the bushfires and the pandemic, the National Cabinet needs to take a longer term view of the support measures put in place to help Australians affected by the crisis than it has to date.
The doubling of the JobSeeker payment (aka Newstart) was initially flagged as a temporary measure to support millions of families and individuals who lost their incomes.
It was also an admission of the sheer inadequacy of the payment to support those who were unable to find work.
Any ideologically driven attempt to wind it back to the old level once the crisis is deemed to be over must be opposed for two reasons.
The first is it would be irresponsible and cruel to expect people who have been living on an increased income for six months to return to a level of support almost universally acknowledged as insufficient to provide accommodation, food and the other bare necessities.
The second is that money received by JobSeeker recipients is spent. It creates demand for goods and services at a time demand is more important than ever before.
This government has, quite rightly, won praise for its handling of the health side of this crisis.
READ MORE:
It will make history if it manages the economic recovery with same degree of success.
That means keeping the stimulus flowing until it is beyond all doubt everybody has crossed the bridge to "the other side", and we have a restructured, and more equitable, economy that is even stronger than before.
