Australia's path out of lockdown has descended into a political squabble less than a month after it was unveiled.
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The Doherty Institute modelling, which sees restrictions begin to ease at 70 per cent vaccination among Australia's 16 and over population, was agreed to by national cabinet in July.
But Delta's spread within and across NSW's borders has made the modelling a political flashpoint. National cabinet unity, tenuous at the best of times, is threatening to break entirely.
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr last week demanded Australia's leaders admit that 70 per cent will not be a "Freedom Day", and restrictions will linger after Doherty's targets are met.
But amid talk of states walking away from the target, the federal government says economic support will be yanked from those reneging on the deal.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison is urging them to stay the course. He told colleagues on Tuesday the Doherty Institute "stood above the noise" of day-to-day politics. His deputy Barnaby Joyce says the government needs to be frank: people will get sick and die once reopening begins, but perpetual lockdowns are not a solution.
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Do lockdowns end at 70-80 per cent?
Probably, but what replaces them is up in the air.
The Doherty Institute says it's unlikely we'll need generalised lockdowns once we hit the 70-80 per cent threshold. But it concedes that is dependent on effective "vigilant public health interventions" - testing, tracing, isolating and quarantine.
Sydney University infectious disease paediatrictian Robert Booy says exposure sites, like schools or shops where there's an outbreak, will face two-day shutdowns for deep cleaning.
He warns QR codes, social distancing, and mask use will continue to be a feature of everyday life even after high vaccination rates are achieved.
"When someone's got symptoms, they test. If someone's positive, they trace, they isolate, they quarantine. This is not a lockdown, this is just some sensible measures to keep us going," he says.
But if a state's tracing and isolating system is not up to scratch, Doherty concedes more moderate measures - capacity limits on events - would not be enough to keep an outbreak in check.
The aim is to keep the Covid's reproduction rate, the number of people an infected person passes the virus on to, under one. Doherty says lockdowns in Victoria and NSW are helping to achieve this.
Will there be extra freedoms for vaccinated people?
Yes, but we're still light on detail.
Scott Morrison has confirmed there will be "special rules" for vaccinated Australians, saying making life easier for them is common sense.
Quarantine requirements for vaccinated Australians will be eased in Phase B, triggered at 70 per cent. Larger intakes of vaccinated Australians stranded overseas will also begin.
Outside of the agreed-upon plan, Tasmania, the NT, and Victoria have been tasked with working out how the lives of vaccinated and unvaccinated Australians will differ.
Exemptions from state border closures and access to large scale events are two ideas being considered. But the full details are still to be thrashed out.
Does the NSW outbreak change things?
The Doherty Institute says no, but is at loggerheads with some states.
Doherty assumes a small number of cases will be active when Australia hits 70 per cent, not the 11,000 currently seen in NSW. But it insists a higher caseload would not alter its projections entirely.
But Professor Booy warns modelling is "only as good as the assumptions that go into it".
"Assumptions are not fact. So if you start placing all of your decisions on modeling, you're not looking at the full picture," he says.
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What are the states saying?
The states are referencing the same modelling, but their interpretations seem markedly different.
The Delta variant has forced NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian to abandon hope of returning to zero cases. She says Australia will have to learn to live with the virus once it hits 80 per cent vaccination.
Barr says NSW's approach will expose the rest of Australia to the highly contagious Delta strain, and the ACT will need assume the virus would be constantly travelling across the border. He insists the capital territory will push for "much more" than the agreed-upon vaccination targets, including the 12 to 15 age range not included in Doherty's model.
Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews says reaching zero Covid remains the goal, but will be extremely difficult while cases in NSW remain high.
But WA and Queensland are threatening to walk away from the targets altogether.
WA Premier Mark McGowan, who has already threatened to keep border restrictions in place after 80 per cent is reached, wants a rethink. He claims no cases in a number of states - WA, Queensland, SA and Tasmania - proves NSW's justifications are "self-serving".
Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk says the "goalposts have changed" because national cabinet adopted the Doherty modelling before NSW recorded over 800 cases in a day.
How do we keep the states together?
Each leader has their own political imperatives.
The federal government has been more reticent to criticise Berejiklian than Andrews. McGowan and Palaszczuk's hardline approach paid dividends at the ballot box.
Berejiklian has been critical of their approaches, championing her record of avoiding lockdowns. But she's faced criticism after Delta skipped NSW borders, with Andrews on Tuesday claiming he would like to send the strain back to "where it came from".
And premiers have been quick to point out a lack of vaccine supply, purview of the federal government, when they come under pressure.
Professor Booy suggests a novel idea to end the bickering: adding all opposition leaders, including from the states and territories, to national cabinet.
"It would would reduce political acrimony. Then we can focus on the virus and not each other. Whether [Covid] is causing trouble in ACT or WA, we need to be trying to work together," he says.
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