The wettest winter in five years followed by significant spring growth has created a massive job ahead for the ACT's mowing crews, with the Bureau of Meteorology reporting November to January is 1.5 to 2.5 times more likely to see rainfall in the top 20 per cent of historical records for much of eastern Australia.
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However, while the ACT's grasslands have a high moisture content now, that could change quickly in the weeks ahead as daytime temperatures rise and some grass begin to dry and cure.
In its outlook for the coming summer season, the NSW Rural Fire Service reported "grass growth is likely to accelerate in the southern regions as temperatures warm. These areas will also record very high grass fuel loads".
The COVID-19 pandemic has also complicated matters for firefighters, with the NSW RFS introducing rapid antigen testing at high priority locations. This testing regime will be further extended this summer to include its incident management teams, air bases and base camps.
Hazard reduction work has been stepped up in the ACT as COVID restrictions have eased. The ACT's mowers cut 68 hectares a month and a mowing map is provided by City Services to indicate what has been mown recently, and what areas will be targeted in the next month.
Grass fires, rather than bushfires, are now seen as the greatest emerging fire threat in the coming months with the ACT surrounded by vast swathes of grasslands which are largely maintained by rural landholders.
The president of the ACT Rural Landholders Association, Tom Allen, said the greatest risk to a fire starting was close to the main roads and has urged the ACT government to increase its mowing width out to the fencelines along busy thoroughfares like Hindmarsh Drive and Sulwood Drive in Woden and Tuggeranong.
"We had a green summer last year but I can't remember ever having two green summers in a row here," Mr Allan said.
"Farmers usually like to use their grazing stock to keep the grass down but the problem is that the prices of stock are now so high, you can't afford to increase your stock levels.
"Grass fires are the worry and I think the fire threat, if it comes, will be at its worst later in the summer, probably around January and February."
ACT Rural Fire Service Chief Officer Rohan Scott said officers were working with land managers to prepare the territory's outer protection zones.
Since November 1, all four of the fire towers around the ACT have been staffed and fire permits have been required for all hazard reductions, including pile burning.
ESA Commissioner Georgeina Whelan said grass fires often develop quickly and may leave minimal time to get ready, but that evacuations are not usually required.
"Grass fires can move three times faster than a bushfire and can start easily and spread quickly," she said.
"If your home is impacted by a grass fire, it's usually not required to leave your suburb or local area. Instead, avoid driving and blocking roads for emergency vehicles. Simply walk several streets away from the risk and stay up to date with emergency information via the ACT ESA channels."
The Indian Ocean Dipole, which is a significant contributor to rainfall variability across the country, is slowly returning to neutral this month and meteorologists are predicting sustained La Nina conditions over summer.
La Nina events increase the chances of above-average rainfall for northern and eastern Australia during spring and summer.
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