Following Donald Trump's win in the South Carolina presidential primary it is almost certain he will be the Republican candidate at this November's election.
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That means, given a very recent Harvard CAPS-Harris poll gave Trump a six-point lead over President Biden, who is equally likely to be the Democrat candidate, there is a better-than-even chance the world needs to be ready for another four years of the disruptor-in-chief.
One would hope, given Trump's populist America-first and non-interventionist views, the Australian government is putting pre-emptive measures in place to cushion the impact of a possible change of the guard in Washington.
Is, for example, Kevin Rudd the best choice as ambassador to the US in the event Trump wins? Mr Rudd has said unkind things about the former president. The orange one neither forgets nor forgives.
While Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese have enjoyed good relations with the Biden White House Labor would face significant challenges on numerous fronts if the Democrats lose.
What would a second Trump presidency mean for AUKUS and the submarine deal? Would he, as some suggest, see it as transactional and focus on the billions Australia is to invest in boosting America's submarine production?
Perhaps. But he might argue any submarine sold to Australia would be one less for the USN at a time of increasing tensions between the US and China. Right now all we have is speculation. Trump is playing his cards very close to his chest.
While 2016 now seems like a generation ago many won't have forgotten Trump campaigned against Democrat "war mongering" and promised to bring US troops home from around the globe.
His transactional relations with dictators including Russian President Vladimir Putin and Kim Jong Un of North Korea raised eyebrows. He is on the record as saying if he was president he could end the war in Ukraine overnight; presumably at the expense of Ukrainian territory.
Trump also threatened to withhold support from European nations that weren't "paying their way" in NATO. These are the very nations now so crucial, along with the US, to the defence of Ukraine.
The implications of a Trump victory would be keeping Ukrainian President Zelenskyy awake at night given the Republicans are already nobbling military aid to his beleaguered nation.
A big question mark also hangs over Israel. Would Trump continue to send billions of dollars worth of war materiel to Tel Aviv for what is an increasingly unpopular conflict?
The possibility of a resurgent Trump is a timely reminder isolationism has historically had a major influence on American diplomacy. The Monroe doctrine, that warned the European powers against meddling in the affairs of the western hemisphere, basically told the world "if you leave us alone we'll leave you alone".
America was notably reluctant to enter World War I and, in the aftermath, turned back upon itself. Public opinion was strongly against getting directly involved in the fight against Nazi Germany right up until Pearl Harbour was attacked by the Japanese.
It was not until after the emergence of post-war American exceptionalism that the US anointed itself as a global policeman obligated to defend the "rules based order".
Trump, ever a transactional pragmatist, has always been wary of unproductive overseas entanglements. His hawkishness on China is not ideological but economic.
At a time when war fatigue over Ukraine and Gaza is on the rise in the US promoting "America first" and making domestic issues his priority could give Trump a winning edge this November.
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