A former people smuggler now living in Pakistan has been asked by his former bosses to return to Indonesia and test a future Shorten government by finding passengers willing to travel on boats to Australia.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
The bosses, he says, have grown wealthy sending refugees to Europe, and are hoping to send a surge of boats to Australia to test Labor's resolve.
However, the passing of the medical evacuation law this week was not the trigger, the former smuggler said.
"[A change of government] is the main reason they think the way will open again. People know that the big politicians are different: Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison, not Julia Gillard ... and of course they know [the Opposition Leader is Bill Shorten]," he said.
Mr Shorten has vowed to turn back boats where it's safe, and maintain what he calls a "ring of steel" around Australia. But the former smuggler said his old bosses in the syndicates hoped to overwhelm the system.
"They want to push it. They want to send one, two, three, four, five, six, seven boats every week, twice a week ... then I think it will be hard for the [Australian] government to handle it. All of a sudden 1000 people, or 2000 in a month or two," he said.
"They need someone in Indonesia now, who could control from there. The rest they will do from here [Pakistan]."
Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton this week accused Mr Shorten and the crossbenchers of weakening Australia's border protection regime by passing legislation to allow doctors a greater say in bringing people on Nauru and Manus Island to Australia.
Mr Shorten says the medical evacuation measure is strictly limited to people already in offshore detention, and accused Mr Morrison of using rhetoric that encouraged people to board a boat to Australia.
It's understood the opposition has insisted to the heads of Home Affairs and Operation Sovereign Borders that there be no reduction in patrols or scrutiny of the sea to the north of Australia during any transition period.
More than 14,000 refugees and asylum seekers are living in Indonesia and only several hundred are resettled by the United Nations each year. The rest have been told that they may never be resettled in a third country.
The former people smuggler said of people who were waiting six or more years for resettlement, "they will ride [a boat] eventually, I think".
However, among a dozen asylum seekers and refugees interviewed in two locations by The Age and Sydney Morning Herald in Indonesia, there is little enthusiasm to take a boat. One group, from Afghanistan, Pakistan and Sudan were on the streets outside the West Jakarta Immigration centre. The others lived two hours south of Jakarta in the town of Cisarua.
Four of the 12 men were aware of a law change in Canberra this week on medical evacuations, with two across the detail. But only one, Afghan Hazara Sayed Ali Hussaini, who has been recognised as a refugee, said he was willing to try a boat.
When Mr Hussaini arrived almost six years ago, he expected to take boat in a matter of weeks. But when turnbacks started under Tony Abbott, he changed his mind. He has been in Jakarta ever since.
"Back then I was worried about the boats being turned back. Secondly, I was told that the process here was quick. 'You just wait here,' the UNHCR said. But I have been waiting for [almost] six years."
Asked if he might try a boat if the Australian government changed he said: "Inshallah [God willing].
"Yes, if it is possible, if I have the money ... If there is [an opportunity] I want it because I am tired. Who wants to be like this, just sleeping and eating?"
However, he has little money left to pay a smuggler.
The other 11 refugees interviewed, most of whom had come to Indonesia with family, insisted that boat journeys were too dangerous.
Khalil Payeez, a Pakistani Hazara who arrived in Indonesia in July, 2013, agreed that if Labor wins the next election "of course people smugglers will try to start moving and make propaganda," and that "Some might think of jumping [on a boat]."
"The smugglers will try to persuade people with promises ... The first boat is a test boat. If they go to Australia and get taken to Nauru or Manus no-one else will try. Here is much better than Manus, Nauru or Christmas Island," he said.
Mr Payeez is sceptical about the impact of the medical evacuation law change, but doesn't doubt - as Prime Minister Scott Morrison has argued - that would-be people smugglers could try to use the legal change to tempt new customers.
"It’s too soon to say if it has an impact. I just got the news. I don’t think it’s a huge impact. But people pay attention," he said.
"[However] I don't think people here will be deceived again. It might be some might be interested, but not many. There are more families here [Cisarua] now and so people say the risk is too high, no one wants to get on a boat with children and family members."
Many spoke at length about family and friends who had drowned, saying they did not want to risk the lives of their own children.
Ashraf Jawadi, a 33-year-old Afghan who has lived in Cisarua for the past three years, insisted he, his wife and two children are "waiting to go legally. Not by boat. It is too dangerous".
"I lost many friends in 2011, 2012, 2013. Even now, we don't know what happened to them."
"If you go by resettlement [through the UNHCR] it means the Australian government invite you. If you go by boat they don't invite you. There is a door and a window. Don't go by window."
The decisive factor in most people's decision to stay in Indonesia has been the turn-backs policy. The former smuggler, who was at one time a mid-level operative for a major syndicate, agreed.
"[Turn-backs] costs both the passengers and the smugglers," he said.
However, a number of wealthy smugglers from the former boat trade in 2012 and 2013 were still in business, and hoping to start the route to Australia again. He named several, including Zahid Nanna, who organised a boat in 2012 that killed 96 people, and Sayed Naveed, who deputised for the infamous Sayed Abbas when he was in prison in Indonesia.
"This time they are very big. They are rich because of Europe," the former smuggler said.
If they were successful in re-establishing the route to Australia, "there will be no limit of passengers, especially from Afghanistan. Thousands of people are trying to get out, they are already here in Pakistan. A lot of them."
In response to questions, Mr Shorten said, "Let me make it very clear to people smugglers in Indonesia or elsewhere: you and your trade are not welcome. Any government I lead will deploy the full force of the ring of steel of the Australian defence forces and our border forces."
But Home Affairs minister Peter Dutton said of the medivac legislation, it was "unbelievable that Mr Shorten has still not learnt the lessons of Julia Gillard and Kevin Rudd. The people smugglers look at this kind of reckless behaviour and they rub their hands together.
"We know there are currently approximately 14,000 people pooling in departure areas in Indonesia just waiting to get on a boat and come to Australia tomorrow. People smugglers operate sophisticated criminal outfits who will find a way to move people. If they think that there is even the slightest chance of the doors being open, then they will seek to move those people.”
