The Nationals are on a wild ride to nowhere

So you'd think this would be a time of collective breath-holding within the Liberal and National parties. Of absolute heads-down discipline. And yet Nationals MPs are blasting the airconditioner, doing wheelies and taking as many detours as possible.

The Turnbull government is clinging to its majority in the House of Representatives, with just 74 members (or 73, if you discount Speaker Tony Smith). And is nervously awaiting the citizenship declarations from lower house MPs, due to land by 8pm next Tuesday. It's almost a given that by the end of next week, there will be more High Court referrals.

Labor MPs are also in the frame on citizenship, but obviously, it is the Coalition with the most to lose here. If enough MPs have to resign due to dual citizenship, it's not outside the realms of possibility the country will be forced to an an early election next year. Amid all this, the leadership chatter around Malcolm Turnbull continues. This is not just bored journalists filling time. Some ministers have gone so far as to sound out backbenchers over their preferred alternative.

Of course, despite the car troubles, the official line from the Coalition is that strong, stable, amazing government continues in Canberra. Discerning voters may have their own doubts about this analysis, but they are being ably helped by the Nationals, who seem to be doing everything they can to undermine the Coalition line. Indeed, it seems harder to find a Nat who is not threatening to cross the floor than one who is.

There is recent evidence of Coalition harmony: the party room agreeing to a new energy policy back in October was a big achievement, given this has ripped apart federal politics for the best part of a decade. But this week alone we've had Queensland Nationals blaming Turnbull for the LNP's losses in the state election. On Sunday, George Christensen posted a heartfelt apology to One Nation voters on social media, saying his party had "let you down". " We need to listen more, work harder, stand up more for conservative values .... A lot of that rests with the Turnbull govt [sic], its leadership & policy direction."

Then you have the Nationals who were having a go at the Prime Minister over same-sex marriage (as it sailed through the Senate, free of conservative amendments on Wednesday). Victorian Andrew Broad said there had been a "complete lack of leadership", while Christensen piped up again, concurring a "true leader" who not have taken a "hands-off approach".

And all this before you get to Nationals' plans for a banking inquiry, which directly flouts official Coalition policy and dangerously takes advantage of the fact the government is down on numbers in the House (partly due to Joyce's unfortunate resignation). Add a healthy pinch of squabbling over Fiona Nash's now-vacant NSW Senate spot (should it go to a Nat or a Lib?), more territorial fighting over the acting Prime Ministership (Julie Bishop or Nigel Scullion?), some leftover resentment that Turnbull, not Abbott, is Prime Minister, and hey presto, you've got an unholy mess.

One explanation for the sudden burst of bad behaviour within the Nationals is they are currently sans leadership. With Joyce away campaigning in New England, the party has only a nominal ("interim") leader in Scullion. There is no deputy leader to try to keep people in line, either, given Nash's sudden departure.

But would it make a difference anyway? Nationals MPs have a long history of going rogue (Joyce was famous for crossing the floor in his early career). They like to remind the Liberal Party that they keep them in government and so should not be taken for granted. Part of the Nationals' "brand" is they embody the free spirit of the bush. Along with the Akubras and annual Christmas party featuring farm-fresh produce, this also means they Speak Their Minds.

As NSW National John "Wacka" Williams has acknowledged, the banking inquiry push makes things uncomfortable for Turnbull, but he can't back down on something he's been calling for seven years.

Then there's the self-preservation element. The current crop of "Natstivism" (activist Nats) comes as the Coalition cops a beating around the country. National polls put the Coalition in a clear election-losing position and this was only reinforced by the weekend's Queensland result. So there are career-saving reasons to try to differentiate the Nationals from the Liberals.

But what is the logical end game here?

Privately, some Liberals are describing the Nats' behaviour as selfish and scared. It is also noted that the Nats – who have half the senators of the Greens and only 16 members out of 150 in the lower house (assuming Joyce returns) – get to be in government and cabinet because of the Liberal Party.

So the Nationals can muck up all they like. But they still have to travel in the same clapped-out car as the Liberals. And if the Coalition breaks down, there will be no winners. Both parties are going to have to get out and push.