Cuts to the national cultural institutions are unlikely to turn voters away from the government in July's election while Labor makes no promises to restore the funding.
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The Australian National University's emeritus professor of political science, John Warhurst, said the cuts had been misleadingly characterised as an issue only affecting Canberrans, but had a national impact.
"The National Library and Trove, which is the great resource for family historians, is something people all over Australia use," he said.
"But its ability to change people's votes is restricted a little bit by the lack of promises to restore this funding or these public servants by Bill Shorten and the national team."
Professor Warhurst said he expected the ACT's sitting Labor members to use the cuts to their advantage during campaigning, but said at a national level Labor was likely to stay silent over public service cuts.
"They are wary of being seen as a big spending party so they're wanting to focus on other issues," he said.
"Anything seen as a Canberra issue is unlikely to get full-hearted support… it's seen as being of limited value or maybe even a disadvantage to the national campaign."
Professor Warhurst said the Greens were likely to pick up votes from Canberrans unhappy with the major parties' stance on asylum seekers, but other issues like climate change and same-sex marriage would direct votes to both Labor and the Greens because of their "great distance" from the government's position.
Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull's popularity compared to predecessor Tony Abbott may also have some bearing on votes in the ACT.
But Professor Warhurst said many progressive ACT voters were likely to be disappointed Mr Turnbull hadn't translated his personal positions into action on social issues like same-sex marriage.
"The polls show that although the gloss is coming off he still … is regarded as more popular as a prospective prime minister than Bill Shorten," he said.
"The gap has narrowed, but I think he's the sort of Prime Minister who appeals to ACT voters... and that's across the board."
Boundary changes were unlikely to affect Labor's stranglehold on the ACT's two federal electorates, Professor Warhurst said.
"There might be a really attractive independent who pops up, but at the moment it looks like it will be the fairly usual three-way election contest," he said.
But the shift of about 10,200 inner north voters to the southern seat of Canberra held by Labor's Gai Brodtmann may even out the disparity between the margins of the newly renamed northern seat of Fenner, held by Labor's Andrew Leigh at 12.5 per cent, and Canberra currently at 7.4 per cent.
"I think the changes may take away some strong Labor areas from Andrew Leigh and give them to Gai Brodtmann," he said.
"The Greens overall are polling very well at the moment … nationally it's up from about 9 per cent to 14 per cent so I wouldn't be surprised if in this election there was swing towards the Greens in the ACT."
Across the border, Professor Warhurst predicts Eden-Monaro will live up to its reputation as a bellwether seat and be taken by Labor if they win the election in a close contest as indicated by recent national polls showing a swing of about 3.5 per cent away from the government.
He said boundary changes were thought to have helped the chances of the sitting member, Liberal Peter Hendy, but with Labor's candidate Mike Kelly having held the seat previously for six years it was likely to "cancel out" the advantages of incumbency.
"There are certainly signs ... the coalition recognises it as one of the seats they have to devote some resources too," he said, after Julie Bishop's visit to the electorate on Monday.
"Because of the public service component of Queanbeyan you sometimes expect ACT issues to flow over … [but] it didn't save Mike Kelly last time … so you have to be prudent in jumping to conclusions."
Controversy over Dr Hendy's role in the ousting of Mr Abbott was unlikely to sway voters come election day, Professor Warhurst said.
In the Senate, an overhaul of the voting process was unlikely to stop the two ACT seats being retained by Labor and Liberal unless there was an overwhelming swing against the government nationally, he said.
"In a number of recent elections there have been strong third-party campaigns by the Greens and before that by the Australian Democrats and they've come fairly close … but you have to bet on the two current senators being returned," he said.
Professor Warhurst said a slightly higher number of unintentional informal votes were possible because of the senate changes.
Opposition to light rail in the ACT may also lead to "a few" extra protest votes from those disaffected with Labor and the Greens, but he said the issue was unlikely to sway voters at a federal level.
