Michael McCormack's Nationals are on track to retain all seats, fending off challenges from several strong regional independents whose campaigns were fuelled by a prolonged drought and anger over water management.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
$0/
(min cost $0)
or signup to continue reading
Rob Oakeshott's chances of returning to the crossbench are slim with the Nationals' Pat Conaghan set to take the northern NSW seat of Cowper with his party's small but favourable swing replicated locally.
On Saturday night, regional Liberals were fighting close contests against independents in two seats: in the southern NSW seat of Farrer long-time MP Sussan Ley looked set to hang on to her safe seat despite a 10-point swing against her.
In the adjacent Victorian seat of Indi, a swing to the Liberals' Steve Martin leaves independent Helen Haines in limbo, with less than a thousand votes separating the two at 8.30pm.
"I'm really hopeful that all of our seats will be returned," Nationals leader Mr McCormack said as polls closed in eastern Australia. "We did run a united front during the campaign. We wanted more infrastructure for the region, we wanted more mobile phone towers for the regions, we wanted more health services for the regions."
The Nationals entered this election with 16 lower house seats, its highest level of representation since last century, but were vulnerable on multiple fronts.
Federal MPs feared the voter anger that saw the Nationals lose three seats at March's NSW state poll - with frustration over drought, water allocations and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan - would carry over into their own elections.
They also feared retaliation after a term of scandal, in which former leader Barnaby Joyce resigned after having an affair with staff member Vikki Campion, as did outgoing Mallee MP Andrew Broad after he met an online "sugar baby" during a fateful trip to Hong Kong.
Mr Joyce has refused to rule out a post-election leadership challenge against Mr McCormack.
Taking advantage of voter anger was a slew of independents and candidates for the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party, which admitted to being short on funding and time following their success at the NSW state election.
On the northern NSW coast, independent Rob Oakeshott eyed a return to Parliament in the Cowper electorate, which has never strayed from the Nationals but was vulnerable following the retirement of long-time member Luke Hartsuyker.
Along the Murray-Darling, regional Liberals in the border electorates of Farrer and Indi faced new independent threats: Helen Haines in Victoria's Indi hoped to accomplish the first ever independent handover following Cathy McGowan's retirement, and Kevin Mack in NSW's Farrer hoped to fell one of the safest seats in the country on the back of his popular Albury mayorship.
And in Queensland, three Liberal National members - George Christensen in Dawson, Michelle Landry in Capricornia and Ken O'Dowd in Flynn - were at risk of losing their marginal seats to Labor.
But early results show each of the three Liberal Nationals clocking swings of roughly 10 points in their favour, far exceeding pre-election expectations amid strong results for the government Queensland-wide.
"Beyond the obvious challenge in Barnaby Joyce, the Nationals faced the perennial problem of convincing rural voters being in the Coalition does not put them in the pocket of inner city voters and big business," Australian National University political scientist Jill Sheppard said.
"They have been able to overcome this with strong, engaged local members and semi-regular public stoushes with Liberal leaders. Joyce was particularly effective on both of these fronts. So the silencing of Barnaby, whether temporary or permanent and the perception that being part of the government has not prevented rural problems like the Menindee fish kill has left the Nationals with few arguments in their favour," Dr Sheppard said.
"If being in a Coalition government does not improve conditions for farmers, including irrigators, then why should the Nationals give up any freedom or power to the Liberals?"
Mr Joyce is set to retain his northern NSW seat of New England comfortably, marking a half point swing in his favour with just over a third of the votes counted.
The Coalition agreement between the Liberals and Nationals will be on the post-election agenda, after last week Liberal candidates were spotted encouraging supporters to vote below the line, disregarding the order decided upon by both parties.
Last night, Mr Joyce said early election results showed Labor had failed to win over blue-collar voters.
"You've lost Herbert, you didn't win Capricornia, you didn't win Flynn," he said. "This is a wake-up call for the Labor party, big time."
- SMH/The Age
