Despite the opinion polls, there was champagne on Scott Morrison's plane

The ABC delivered its verdict: The Coalition would retain government.

"I had holiday plans!" said one senior staffer. Not anymore. Seat after seat fell in the Coalition's favour, save for the loss of Tony Abbott and his blue ribbon seat of Warringah.

Robertson, Reid and Banks in NSW all swung away from Labor first, then all eyes in Sydney's Sofitel Wentworth ballroom turned to Victoria - the Liberal wipe-out that was feared after the August leadership spill and the Victorian state election never eventuated.

Cheers echoed through the room when Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton filled the screen from Queensland, his margin increased, along with many of his northern colleagues.

Up to five others were still too close to call, a hung Parliament with a minority Coalition government the most likely possibility.

"It is looking very, very good though, a lot better than the polls," said Liberal Party member Tony Wong.

One NSW MP, who had held onto his seat despite a swing against him said he was "exhausted".

A relentless campaign from Prime Minister Scott Morrison had put them in touching distance. His final dash to Tasmania - the first prime minister to begin his election day in the state in 90 years - had paid dividends.

They won Braddon and Bass not long after dinner, both parties have visited more than half a dozen times this year - the margin between winning and losing narrowing right up until May 18.

Mr Morrison ended the campaign the way he began it, warning people arriving to cast their votes that their choice was between him and Labor leader Bill Shorten, the status quo over the risk of change.

Despite spending months lagging in the polls, champagne was being poured on Mr Morrison's plane as it made its way back across the Bass Strait.

His young team had run a disciplined campaign, sticking closely to a message of fear of life under Labor coupled with the Coalition's promise of $154 billion in income tax cuts and a $500 million first home buyer policy.

They were celebrating a five-week run with no real slip-ups.

But few expected they would still be in government on Monday.

"If it hadn't been for Hawke, we were in with a real good shot," one senior Coalition source said.

The former Labor leader's death on Thursday night sapped momentum just as the Coalition was briefing that it was going on the offensive - targeting Labor-held seats in Queensland, such as Longman, that had been considered out of reach up until the final 48 hours of the campaign.

Labor, confident of its own numbers, chose to stay away on Friday and Saturday, its leader bunking down in Melbourne.

By mid-afternoon, Mr Morrison had returned to where it all began, Sydney's Sutherland Shire, to cast his vote and see his parents. Mr Morrison, as he had done all campaign, stuck to the script.

"I don't take anyone's support in this country for granted," he said. "Today is a choice about who you want to continue to be the prime minister of this country - myself or Bill Shorten."